CAJ | 학술논문

本文首先从商品耐用性角度考察中国贸易顺差的内部结构特征，然后通过建立两贸易品跨期均衡消费理论模型和相应的计量模型，对中国耐用和非耐用品贸易收支变动原因进行了实证研究。结果表明，非耐用品贸易顺差是中国贸易顺差的首要来源，但其增速远低于耐用贸易品。从长期看，国内实际资本存量快速扩张是推动耐用和非耐用品贸易顺差不断走高的根本因素，国内实际消费支出上升和非耐用品跨时价格下降是抑制非耐用品贸易顺差的有力因素，而国内实际消费支出上升对耐用品贸易顺差不存在显著抑制作用。本文还分析了相关变量间的短期动态关系，并根据长短期的分析结果，提出相应的政策建议。
본문수선종상품내용성각도고찰중국무역순차적내부결구특정，연후통과건립량무역품과기균형소비이론모형화상응적계량모형，대중국내용화비내용품무역수지변동원인진행료실증연구。결과표명，비내용품무역순차시중국무역순차적수요래원，단기증속원저우내용무역품。종장기간，국내실제자본존량쾌속확장시추동내용화비내용품무역순차불단주고적근본인소，국내실제소비지출상승화비내용품과시개격하강시억제비내용품무역순차적유력인소，이국내실제소비지출상승대내용품무역순차불존재현저억제작용。본문환분석료상관변량간적단기동태관계，병근거장단기적분석결과，제출상응적정책건의。
From the durability of tradable goods, this paper investigates the structure characteristics of china＇s trade surplus. Then ,based on the two tradables intertemporal optimizing theory model and corresponding econometric model ,this paper also analyzes the causes of trade surplus of durables and nondurables. Empirical test shows that nondurables trade is the first source of china＇s trade surplus. In the long run,the surplus of nondurables trade is increasing due to the positive effect from real capital stock exceeding the negative effect from nondurable intertemporal price and domestic real consumption expenditure. The surplus of durables trade is increasing strongly because domestic real consumption expenditure has no negative effect on the surplus of durables significantly.