CAJ | 학술논문

本文采用空间面板计量分析方法，考察中国省域经济发展模式的动态演化特征。研究发现，中国省域经济增长存在显著的空间集聚效应和地区效应。在此基础上，使用空间自相关固定效应模型，对1985～2006年中国省域经济增长的趋同性进行了实证分析。结果表明，从时间演化上看，中国经济增长差异呈现先趋同后趋异再趋同的趋势，并表现出两俱乐部趋同；中国省域经济增长存在条件收敛，且收敛速度先减缓后加速。从空间演化上看，经济集聚和省域差距相伴随出现，增长过程中区域外溢显著存在，促进了经济的趋同演化。
본문채용공간면판계량분석방법，고찰중국성역경제발전모식적동태연화특정。연구발현，중국성역경제증장존재현저적공간집취효응화지구효응。재차기출상，사용공간자상관고정효응모형，대1985～2006년중국성역경제증장적추동성진행료실증분석。결과표명，종시간연화상간，중국경제증장차이정현선추동후추이재추동적추세，병표현출량구악부추동；중국성역경제증장존재조건수렴，차수렴속도선감완후가속。종공간연화상간，경제집취화성역차거상반수출현，증장과정중구역외일현저존재，촉진료경제적추동연화。
This paper from the perspective of the spatial structure to study the dynamic evolution mode of Chinese provincial economic growth. We found that the differences between China＇s provincial economic growth presents the trend of convergence at first, divergence after and convergence finally, and proves two clubs convergence exist; there were significant spatial convergence effect and regional effect in Chinese provincial economic growth. On the basis of endogenous growth, taking Chinese provincial growth over 1985 - 2006 an example ,an empirical analysis using spatial auto-related fixed effect model to study the convergence of economic growth is applied. The results showed that spillover effect is greater than the lock-in effect brought from spatial agglomeration, Chinese provincial economic growth demonstrates conditional convergence, and the convergence rate slowed down firstly and acceler- ated soon after. From the spatial evolution, the economic gap and spatial convergence emergence accompany;region- al spillovers exist significantly during the process of growth, promoting the Chinese economy to convergence.