CAJ | 학술논문

能源利用是人类生存的基础和前提，对其碳足迹及生态压力进行研究具有重要意义。本文运用碳排放足迹的相关含义及研究方法。计算得出1995-2006年上海市能源利用的总碳足迹、各能源类型和产业类型的碳足迹、碳足迹的产值和生态压力值。并以此为基础。利用岭回归函数进行STIRPAT模型拟合，进一步研究经济发展与碳排放足迹之间的关系，最后提出适应性的管理策略。研究结果表明：①总碳足迹从1995年的1.05hm^2／人上升到2006年的1.36hm^2／人，呈现波动上升的趋势；②1995-2006年各能源利用的碳足迹及其分配率均以煤炭最大，石油次之，天然气最小。且煤炭利用的碳足迹分配率逐年下降，石油与天然气与之相反；③2001-2006年第一、二产业的碳足迹变化不明显，而第三产业与产业总碳足迹呈明显上升趋势；④能源利用的碳足迹产值从1995年的1.79万元／hm^2增加至2006年的3.79万元／hm^2，碳足迹的生态压力也从1995年的129.6上升至2006年的231.8；⑤能源利用碳足迹与经济增长关系的模型拟合研究结果中没有出现环境库兹涅茨曲线。进一步证实能源利用对环境所造成的压力增大。
능원이용시인류생존적기출화전제，대기탄족적급생태압력진행연구구유중요의의。본문운용탄배방족적적상관함의급연구방법。계산득출1995-2006년상해시능원이용적총탄족적、각능원류형화산업류형적탄족적、탄족적적산치화생태압력치。병이차위기출。이용령회귀함수진행STIRPAT모형의합，진일보연구경제발전여탄배방족적지간적관계，최후제출괄응성적관리책략。연구결과표명：①총탄족적종1995년적1.05hm^2／인상승도2006년적1.36hm^2／인，정현파동상승적추세；②1995-2006년각능원이용적탄족적급기분배솔균이매탄최대，석유차지，천연기최소。차매탄이용적탄족적분배솔축년하강，석유여천연기여지상반；③2001-2006년제일、이산업적탄족적변화불명현，이제삼산업여산업총탄족적정명현상승추세；④능원이용적탄족적산치종1995년적1.79만원／hm^2증가지2006년적3.79만원／hm^2，탄족적적생태압력야종1995년적129.6상승지2006년적231.8；⑤능원이용탄족적여경제증장관계적모형의합연구결과중몰유출현배경고자열자곡선。진일보증실능원이용대배경소조성적압력증대。
Energy use is the base and premise of human survival, so it is important to study carbon footprint and ecological pressue. This article used the relevant concepts of carbon footprint and the research methods to calculate carbon footprint of Shanghai＇ s total energy use, carbon footprint of all types energy and industry, carbon footprint of the value of output and ecological pressure from 1995 to 2006. Authors used ridge regression function for STIRPAT model fitting and further studied the relations between economic development and carbon footprint. And the adaptive management strategy was put forward lastly. The study results showed that：①The total carbon footprint is increased from 1.05 hm^2/p in 1995 to 1.36 hm^2/p in 2006, which showed the fluctuation increased trend.②The energy use and its distribution in the carbon footprint of coal is the largest, followed by oil, and natural gas is the smallest from 1995 to 2006; distribution rate of carbon footprint of coal has an annual decline, while the oil and gas are in contrast.③From 2001 to 2006, carbon footprint in the primary and secondary industries did not change significantly, while that in the tertiary industry and total carbon footprints of industries showed an upward trend.④Value of carbon footprint of energy use is increased from 1.79 million/hm^2 in 1995 to 3.79 million/hm^2 in 2006; ecological pressure is also increased from 129.6 in 1995 to 231.8 in 2036.⑤Kuznets curve did not appear in the fitting resutts of the relation between carbon footprint of energy use and economic development, which further confirmed the fact that energy use brought increasing pressue on ecological environment.