CAJ | 학술논문

金融危机短期内对国际贸易最直接的两个主要影响渠道为收入效应和价格效应。本文将本次全球金融危机的演变对我国经济的影响划分为危机前、爆发、加剧和复苏四个阶段，采用进出口方程弹性分析法定量分解了国内外收入和人民币实际有效汇率变动两大因素对我国进出口贸易的影响。研究结果显示，危机期间世界经济衰退对我国进出口贸易产生了极大的不利影响，同期人民币实际有效汇率的大幅升值进一步加剧了我国进出口贸易的下降。金融危机冲击使我们充分地意识到我国过度依赖外部需求的经济增长的不可持续性及经济增长模式转换的紧迫性。保持人民币汇率的适度弹性，在危机阶段保持人民币适度贬值有利于短期出口和经济增长的稳定。
금융위궤단기내대국제무역최직접적량개주요영향거도위수입효응화개격효응。본문장본차전구금융위궤적연변대아국경제적영향화분위위궤전、폭발、가극화복소사개계단，채용진출구방정탄성분석법정량분해료국내외수입화인민폐실제유효회솔변동량대인소대아국진출구무역적영향。연구결과현시，위궤기간세계경제쇠퇴대아국진출구무역산생료겁대적불리영향，동기인민폐실제유효회솔적대폭승치진일보가극료아국진출구무역적하강。금융위궤충격사아문충분지의식도아국과도의뢰외부수구적경제증장적불가지속성급경제증장모식전환적긴박성。보지인민폐회솔적괄도탄성，재위궤계단보지인민폐괄도폄치유리우단기출구화경제증장적은정。
The two direct impacts of the Financial Crisis on international trade are income effect and price effect. In this paper we phase the evolution of the financial crisis into four stages of pre-crisis, bursting, aggregating and recovering, and quantitatively decompose the effects of foreign and domestic income and RMB REER on China＇s import and export trade. The conclusion shows that the world economic recession during the crisis has had a significantly negative impact on China＇s import and export trade, and the appreciation of RMB REER also has played a role in adding fuel to the flames. From the Financial Crisis we are fully aware that excessive dependence on external demand may lead to the unsustainability of economic growth, and it＇s necessary and imperative to transform our current export-leading mode of economic growth. To maintain the appropriate flexibility of the RMB exchange rate and a moderate depreciation of the real effective exchange rate is helpful for the stability of exports and economic growth in the short term.