财经理论与实践
財經理論與實踐
재경이론여실천
The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics
2010年
1期
37~41
,共null页
限售股 解禁 市场反应 累积效应 提前反应 减持效应
限售股 解禁 市場反應 纍積效應 提前反應 減持效應
한수고 해금 시장반응 루적효응 제전반응 감지효응
Restricted Shares; Lifting of the Ban; Market Reaction; Cumulative Effect; Early-response; Reducing Effect
限售股解禁的市场反应机制可概括为累积效应、提前反应和减持效应。实证研究证明了这三种机制的存在，同时还发现：累积效应是中国股市波动的重要原因之一；提前反应和减持效应均存在且显著为负；限售股解禁因素总体上引发了负向的市场反应；限售股解禁的心理冲击影响可能大于实际减持压力。大幅度提升市场投资需求以有效承接股票供给规模的巨量增加，这可能是缓解限售股解禁压力的重要思路。
限售股解禁的市場反應機製可概括為纍積效應、提前反應和減持效應。實證研究證明瞭這三種機製的存在，同時還髮現：纍積效應是中國股市波動的重要原因之一；提前反應和減持效應均存在且顯著為負；限售股解禁因素總體上引髮瞭負嚮的市場反應；限售股解禁的心理遲擊影響可能大于實際減持壓力。大幅度提升市場投資需求以有效承接股票供給規模的巨量增加，這可能是緩解限售股解禁壓力的重要思路。
한수고해금적시장반응궤제가개괄위루적효응、제전반응화감지효응。실증연구증명료저삼충궤제적존재，동시환발현：루적효응시중국고시파동적중요원인지일；제전반응화감지효응균존재차현저위부；한수고해금인소총체상인발료부향적시장반응；한수고해금적심리충격영향가능대우실제감지압력。대폭도제승시장투자수구이유효승접고표공급규모적거량증가，저가능시완해한수고해금압력적중요사로。
Theory analysis finds that market reaction mechanism of the lifting of restricted shares can be decomposed into cumulative effect, early responding effect and reducing effect, those are proved by empirical test. The test also shows： cumulative effect is one of critical factors of market fluctuation; there are significantly early-response and reducing effect, and market reaction is negative overall; and the lift impact on investors＇
psychology is far greater than that on reduction itself. To enhance the market demand of investment greatly may be one important policy to solve the problem, for it is a way to undertake the massive increase in the size of the stock supply effectively
