CAJ | 학술논문

文章应用门限面板数据模型，采用1997—2007年我国31个省、市、自治区的数据对我国经济增长与入境旅游业发展之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明入境旅游发展与经济增长之间存在门限效应，即入境旅游收入占GDP的百分比低于2．36％时，入境旅游业的发展对地区经济增长的促进作用并不显著；当该比例高于2．36％时，入境旅游业的发展对地区经济增长有显著促进作用。同时，研究结果表明处于两种状态下的地区其经济增长均不具有条件收敛性，入境旅游发展缩小区域差异的作用没有得到验证。
문장응용문한면판수거모형，채용1997—2007년아국31개성、시、자치구적수거대아국경제증장여입경여유업발전지간적관계진행료실증연구。결과표명입경여유발전여경제증장지간존재문한효응，즉입경여유수입점GDP적백분비저우2．36％시，입경여유업적발전대지구경제증장적촉진작용병불현저；당해비례고우2．36％시，입경여유업적발전대지구경제증장유현저촉진작용。동시，연구결과표명처우량충상태하적지구기경제증장균불구유조건수렴성，입경여유발전축소구역차이적작용몰유득도험증。
The paper studies the relationship between international tourism development and economic growth by applying threshold panel data model with panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2007. Results show that there is a threshold effect between international tourism development and economic growth in China. When the ratio of international tourism receipts to GDP is lower than 2.36% , there is no significant relation between international tourism and economic growth; however, when the ratio is higher than 2. 36%, development of international tourism can significantly promote economic growth; moreover, there is no conditional convergence of economic growth when the ratio is lower or higher than 2.36% , and the hypothesis that development of international tourism can eliminate regional disparity is not verified.