CAJ | 학술논문

从纵向发展来看，近年来贝叶斯推理研究从重推理问题轻推理者因素（关注频率信息和图表呈现的促进效应，推理问题内容对推理的影响，生态效度等），逐渐转向重视推理者因素（知识背景，主体关联性程度等）和推理过程，最后发展到将推理问题、推理者和推理过程整合的趋势；从横向发展来看．各个纵向发展的阶段内部也有横向发展阶段，整个研究结构呈立体状。未来的研究应进一步结合推理材料、推理过程考察推理者因素如焦虑、认知风格、元认知和工作记忆等对贝叶斯推理的影响，并利用新的研究手段如ERP、眼动仪等探索和验证贝叶斯推理的影响因素及其认知加工过程。
종종향발전래간，근년래패협사추리연구종중추리문제경추리자인소（관주빈솔신식화도표정현적촉진효응，추리문제내용대추리적영향，생태효도등），축점전향중시추리자인소（지식배경，주체관련성정도등）화추리과정，최후발전도장추리문제、추리자화추리과정정합적추세；종횡향발전래간．각개종향발전적계단내부야유횡향발전계단，정개연구결구정입체상。미래적연구응진일보결합추리재료、추리과정고찰추리자인소여초필、인지풍격、원인지화공작기억등대패협사추리적영향，병이용신적연구수단여ERP、안동의등탐색화험증패협사추리적영향인소급기인지가공과정。
On the viewpoint of longitudinal development, recent years＇ research on Bayesian reasoning has been gradually converted from valuing reasoning materials and despising reasoners （performance-boosting benefits of the natural frequency presentation and the diagram, contents of material, ecological validity） to valuing reasoners （knowledge background, subject relevancy, etc） and the reasoning process, and then to integrating reasoning materials, reasoners and the reasoning process. On the viewpoint of crosswise development, every longitudinal stage also included a crosswise development inside, and the multidimensional structure of the study has been shaped. At last, we proposed our future directions, namely introducing new methods to research Bayesian reasoning, exploring new reasoner＇s factors which may affect Bayesian reasoning and assuming the integrated trend.