系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2010年
2期
277~286
,共null页
流动性过剩 时间序列分析 误差修正模型 向量自回归模型
流動性過剩 時間序列分析 誤差脩正模型 嚮量自迴歸模型
류동성과잉 시간서렬분석 오차수정모형 향량자회귀모형
liquidity surplus; time series analysis; error-correction model; VAR model
文章以宏观经济学为理论基础，采用误差修正模型、向量自回归模型等经济计量的方法，通过对包括货币市场、股票市场和外汇市场的大量的国内外数据的考察，估计了我国宏观经济中的过剩资本，大约在60000亿元的水平，其主要原因是货币供给过多，它是导致2007年我国股票市场“牛市”的主要原因；文章还从其他方面对股市上涨做了分析并讨论了外汇市场与股票市场的相互影响．
文章以宏觀經濟學為理論基礎，採用誤差脩正模型、嚮量自迴歸模型等經濟計量的方法，通過對包括貨幣市場、股票市場和外彙市場的大量的國內外數據的攷察，估計瞭我國宏觀經濟中的過剩資本，大約在60000億元的水平，其主要原因是貨幣供給過多，它是導緻2007年我國股票市場“牛市”的主要原因；文章還從其他方麵對股市上漲做瞭分析併討論瞭外彙市場與股票市場的相互影響．
문장이굉관경제학위이론기출，채용오차수정모형、향량자회귀모형등경제계량적방법，통과대포괄화폐시장、고표시장화외회시장적대량적국내외수거적고찰，고계료아국굉관경제중적과잉자본，대약재60000억원적수평，기주요원인시화폐공급과다，타시도치2007년아국고표시장“우시”적주요원인；문장환종기타방면대고시상창주료분석병토론료외회시장여고표시장적상호영향．
With macroeconomics as a theoretical basis, in this paper there are econometric methods （Errorcorrection Model, VAR Model, etc.） to analyze a multitude of domestic and foreign data, including data in monetary markets, stock markets, and foreign exchange markets. Furthermore, it estimate that there was about 6000 billion yuan surplus of capital in Chinese macro economy, find that redundant money supply was the main reason for liquidity surplus and it was the most important reason for China bull market in 2007. Our research also contains the other factors for bull market in the Chinese stock market in 2007 and explains the interactions between exchange market and stock market.
