生态经济
生態經濟
생태경제
Ecological Economy
2010年
3期
32~36
,共null页
资源消耗 经济增长 生态足迹 协整 误差修正
資源消耗 經濟增長 生態足跡 協整 誤差脩正
자원소모 경제증장 생태족적 협정 오차수정
resource consumption; economic growth; ecological footprint; co-integration; error correction model
协调资源消耗与经济增长的关系，是社会经济可持续发展过程中面临的重要问题。本文综合运用生态足迹、协整理论及误差修正模型，实证了安徽省资源消耗与经济增长之间的关系。在计算1990-2004年安徽省各项生态足迹的基础上，分析了GDP与各种足迹之间的长期均衡关系。结果表明GDP分别与总生态足迹、能源足迹、水域足迹之间存在协整关系，而与耕地足迹、草地足迹、林地足迹、建筑足迹不存在协整关系，说明安徽省经济发展属于能源、资源消耗型，增加1％的GDP产出需要增加0．58％的生态足迹，且分别需要增加0．10％的能源足迹和0．32％的水域足迹。据此提出了转变经济发展方式，实现安徽省经济可持续发展的政策建议。
協調資源消耗與經濟增長的關繫，是社會經濟可持續髮展過程中麵臨的重要問題。本文綜閤運用生態足跡、協整理論及誤差脩正模型，實證瞭安徽省資源消耗與經濟增長之間的關繫。在計算1990-2004年安徽省各項生態足跡的基礎上，分析瞭GDP與各種足跡之間的長期均衡關繫。結果錶明GDP分彆與總生態足跡、能源足跡、水域足跡之間存在協整關繫，而與耕地足跡、草地足跡、林地足跡、建築足跡不存在協整關繫，說明安徽省經濟髮展屬于能源、資源消耗型，增加1％的GDP產齣需要增加0．58％的生態足跡，且分彆需要增加0．10％的能源足跡和0．32％的水域足跡。據此提齣瞭轉變經濟髮展方式，實現安徽省經濟可持續髮展的政策建議。
협조자원소모여경제증장적관계，시사회경제가지속발전과정중면림적중요문제。본문종합운용생태족적、협정이론급오차수정모형，실증료안휘성자원소모여경제증장지간적관계。재계산1990-2004년안휘성각항생태족적적기출상，분석료GDP여각충족적지간적장기균형관계。결과표명GDP분별여총생태족적、능원족적、수역족적지간존재협정관계，이여경지족적、초지족적、임지족적、건축족적불존재협정관계，설명안휘성경제발전속우능원、자원소모형，증가1％적GDP산출수요증가0．58％적생태족적，차분별수요증가0．10％적능원족적화0．32％적수역족적。거차제출료전변경제발전방식，실현안휘성경제가지속발전적정책건의。
Coordination of resources between consumption and economic growth is the important issues of sustainable socio-economic development process. Based on theories of the ecological footprint, co-integration, error correction model, the relationship between resource consumption and economic development was analyzed. The ecological footprint and energy, arable land, pasture, forestland, water area and residential land footprints have been calculated from 1990 to 2004 in this paper. The relationship between Anhui Province＇s GDP and the ecological footprint was researched in detail. The results showed that a co-integration relationship existed between GDP and the ecological footprint, energy footprint, arable land footprint. There is no co-integration relationship between GDP and footprints of grassland, forestland, water body, residential land. On the basis of above analysis, because of existing co-integration＇ relationship between the economic growth and natural resource, the economic development in Anhui Province will rely on consumption of substantial resources and energy in a long run. The modeling result show that one percent of GDP growth need respectively a input of 0.58 percent of ecological footprint, 0.10 percent of energy footprint and 0.32 percent of water footprint. It is concluded that energy footprint is the key factor affecting economic growth. How to resolve the conflicts between economic growth and natural resources is a key issue facing China. Therefore, we must improve Anhui Province＇s economic development patterns in order to keep our economic development sustainable. Finally, the authors put forward a series of countermeasures for maintaining the sustainable economic development in Anhui Province.
