国际金融研究
國際金融研究
국제금융연구
Studies of International Finance
2010年
3期
53~63
,共null页
金融危机 美元指数变动 应对策略
金融危機 美元指數變動 應對策略
금융위궤 미원지수변동 응대책략
The Financial Crisis; US Dollar Index Changes; Strategy
美元指数在金融危机前后出现了耐人寻味的变化：危机初期大幅下跌，危机严重时期却逆市迅速上升。一有复苏迹象就开始进入跌势。显然与危机之前所奉行的弱势美元政策不一致。美国借助美元的特殊地位将之作为应对金融危机的一个全球性战略武器。巧妙地将自己这个危机源头的损失降至最小程度并在国际上实行霸权主义控制，且正在布局再度获取世界经济政治的新主导权。为增强经济理性发展的能力，中国在应对外部冲击时一定要有前瞻性和预见性；趁美元还未大幅贬值之机减持至少不再增持美国国债并用活话语权；通过创建“中国美元”市场来解决外汇储备问题；建立和拓展石油、铁矿石等大宗原料国际期货市场；同时降低对发达国家的过度依赖：并急需将居者有其屋作为基本国策；此外，发展新能源产业切不可盲目跟风。
美元指數在金融危機前後齣現瞭耐人尋味的變化：危機初期大幅下跌，危機嚴重時期卻逆市迅速上升。一有複囌跡象就開始進入跌勢。顯然與危機之前所奉行的弱勢美元政策不一緻。美國藉助美元的特殊地位將之作為應對金融危機的一箇全毬性戰略武器。巧妙地將自己這箇危機源頭的損失降至最小程度併在國際上實行霸權主義控製，且正在佈跼再度穫取世界經濟政治的新主導權。為增彊經濟理性髮展的能力，中國在應對外部遲擊時一定要有前瞻性和預見性；趁美元還未大幅貶值之機減持至少不再增持美國國債併用活話語權；通過創建“中國美元”市場來解決外彙儲備問題；建立和拓展石油、鐵礦石等大宗原料國際期貨市場；同時降低對髮達國傢的過度依賴：併急需將居者有其屋作為基本國策；此外，髮展新能源產業切不可盲目跟風。
미원지수재금융위궤전후출현료내인심미적변화：위궤초기대폭하질，위궤엄중시기각역시신속상승。일유복소적상취개시진입질세。현연여위궤지전소봉행적약세미원정책불일치。미국차조미원적특수지위장지작위응대금융위궤적일개전구성전략무기。교묘지장자기저개위궤원두적손실강지최소정도병재국제상실행패권주의공제，차정재포국재도획취세계경제정치적신주도권。위증강경제이성발전적능력，중국재응대외부충격시일정요유전첨성화예견성；진미원환미대폭폄치지궤감지지소불재증지미국국채병용활화어권；통과창건“중국미원”시장래해결외회저비문제；건립화탁전석유、철광석등대종원료국제기화시장；동시강저대발체국가적과도의뢰：병급수장거자유기옥작위기본국책；차외，발전신능원산업절불가맹목근풍。
The US dollar index has undergone dramatic changes during the financial crisis, as evidenced by the sharp decline at the beginning, the rapid rise during the severe period and the decrease again following the initial signs of economic recovery, which is different from the weak dollar policy before the financial crisis. As the birthplace of this crises, the US is taking advantage of dollar＇s special status and makes it a global strategic weapon against the financial crisis so as to minimize its own losses with its world hegemony in this regard. Meanwhile, the US is trying to regain its dominant role in the world economy and politics. In order to improve its capability in rational economic development, China should develop its foreseeing ability against external attacks, reduce or at least do not increase its holdings of US treasuries when US dollar does not depreciate seriously. Meanwhile, China should enhance its own voice, and find solutions to problems related to foreign exchange reserve by developing a ＂Chinese dollar＂ market. In addition, efforts should also be made to set up and expand the future markets of commodities such as crude oil and ironstone, thus bringing down the overdependence on developed countries. Moreover, China should develop its own national policy to improve the home affordability, and avoid blindly following the US to develop the new energy industry.
