中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2010年
4期
12~16
,共null页
博弈模型 技术转移 双重博弈 气候变化
博弈模型 技術轉移 雙重博弈 氣候變化
박혁모형 기술전이 쌍중박혁 기후변화
game model; technology transfer; double games; climate change.
为探求《联合国气候变化框架公约》（以下简称《公约》）下促进低碳技术国际转移的机制，本文运用博弈论方法．构建了一个双重博弈模型框架。分别从企业层面和国家层面的角度建立相应的博弈模型，并将二者结合起来，分析相应的均衡及其政策含义。研究表明，国家在低碳技术国际转移中起着关键作用，存在广阔的政策空间；在巴厘路线图谈判中，国际社会应该积极推进气候变化领域《技术合作议定书》的建立，提出《公约》下对发达国家的可测量、可报告、可核实的技术转移义务，规定发达国家必须通过技术转移在发展中国家实现量化的减排；《公约》下应该建立单独的技术转移资金机制，设立专门的技术转移基金，发达国家通过任务分担（辅之以赠款）提供资金。鼓励和资助技术转移；对于转移难度太大或者涉及核心竞争力的低碳技术，发展中国家（企业）必须加强自主研发。
為探求《聯閤國氣候變化框架公約》（以下簡稱《公約》）下促進低碳技術國際轉移的機製，本文運用博弈論方法．構建瞭一箇雙重博弈模型框架。分彆從企業層麵和國傢層麵的角度建立相應的博弈模型，併將二者結閤起來，分析相應的均衡及其政策含義。研究錶明，國傢在低碳技術國際轉移中起著關鍵作用，存在廣闊的政策空間；在巴釐路線圖談判中，國際社會應該積極推進氣候變化領域《技術閤作議定書》的建立，提齣《公約》下對髮達國傢的可測量、可報告、可覈實的技術轉移義務，規定髮達國傢必鬚通過技術轉移在髮展中國傢實現量化的減排；《公約》下應該建立單獨的技術轉移資金機製，設立專門的技術轉移基金，髮達國傢通過任務分擔（輔之以贈款）提供資金。鼓勵和資助技術轉移；對于轉移難度太大或者涉及覈心競爭力的低碳技術，髮展中國傢（企業）必鬚加彊自主研髮。
위탐구《연합국기후변화광가공약》（이하간칭《공약》）하촉진저탄기술국제전이적궤제，본문운용박혁론방법．구건료일개쌍중박혁모형광가。분별종기업층면화국가층면적각도건립상응적박혁모형，병장이자결합기래，분석상응적균형급기정책함의。연구표명，국가재저탄기술국제전이중기착관건작용，존재엄활적정책공간；재파전로선도담판중，국제사회응해적겁추진기후변화영역《기술합작의정서》적건립，제출《공약》하대발체국가적가측량、가보고、가핵실적기술전이의무，규정발체국가필수통과기술전이재발전중국가실현양화적감배；《공약》하응해건립단독적기술전이자금궤제，설립전문적기술전이기금，발체국가통과임무분담（보지이증관）제공자금。고려화자조기술전이；대우전이난도태대혹자섭급핵심경쟁력적저탄기술，발전중국가（기업）필수가강자주연발。
Game theory was applied to explore mechanisms promoting international transfer of low-carbon technologies under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change （UNFCCC）. This article established a model framework of double games, constructed gametheoretical models from perspectives of enterprise and national levels and combined both, analyzed corresponding equilibrium and their policy implications. It is shown that countries play key roles in technology transfer, possessing broad policy space, and the international community should actively promote establishment of ＂Technology Cooperation Protocol＂ in the domain of climate change in the negotiation of Bali Roadmap, put forward measurable, reportable and verifiable （MRV） obligations of technology transfer under UNFCCC for developed countries and stipulate obligations of quantified emission reduction achieved in developing countries by technology transfer for developed countries. Besides, separate funding mechanism for technology transfer under UNFCCC should be established, a special technology transfer fund should bo set up, with developed countries providing funds through task-sharing （supported by grant） to encourage and support technology transfer, and developing countries need to strengthen independent R＆D for technologies which are too difficult to transfer or involve core competitiveness.
