CAJ | 학술논문

通过构建可计算一般均衡模型，本文对房地产价格波动对我国宏观经济及部门经济的影响进行了研究。主要发现如下：各行业产出与房地产价格的变动方向一致，但重工业、采掘业以及房地产业等行业所受到的影响相对较大；房地产价格上涨与下跌使得所有居民的收入都下降，但各收入等级城镇居民所受到的影响并不相同，而政府和企业的收入与房地产价格变动的方向一致。总体来看，房地产价格上涨对经济增长的带动效应较大，但相同幅度价格下跌的负面冲击更大。
통과구건가계산일반균형모형，본문대방지산개격파동대아국굉관경제급부문경제적영향진행료연구。주요발현여하：각행업산출여방지산개격적변동방향일치，단중공업、채굴업이급방지산업등행업소수도적영향상대교대；방지산개격상창여하질사득소유거민적수입도하강，단각수입등급성진거민소수도적영향병불상동，이정부화기업적수입여방지산개격변동적방향일치。총체래간，방지산개격상창대경제증장적대동효응교대，단상동폭도개격하질적부면충격경대。
On constructing computable general equilibrium model （CGE）, we investigate the impacts of real estate price change on marco economic and sector e- conomy in China from a quantitative view. The main findings are as follows： The rising and fall of real estate price will cause corresponding increase and reduction in output of real estate industry and all other industries. Relatively, the impacts of real estate price change on industries such as heavy industry, utilities, minning and real estate industry itself are greater. Both of the rising and fall of real estate price will cause the decline of real income in all kinds of households, but that influ- ences on different income classes of urban households are different, that income of the government and the enterprise change in same direction with real estate price. Overall, although the rising of real estate have great growth effect on the econo- my, the adverse impacts of real estate price fall are even greater.