CAJ | 학술논문

本文用两步多变量回归方法检验了我国2002—2008年房地产宏观调控政策的效果。总的来说,调控政策能够产生比较明显的市场反应;当政策传递出抑制房地产业的信号时,产生显著为负的市场反应;当政策传递出引导房地产市场发展的信号时,产生显著为正的市场反应;市场反应为正或负的政策对房地产市场的影响程度总体上没有显著差异。研究还表明,政策频发能够取得较好的调控效果,但过分密集的政策会因为和前次政策间隔时间过短而使政策效应受阻。
본문용량보다변량회귀방법검험료아국2002—2008년방지산굉관조공정책적효과。총적래설,조공정책능구산생비교명현적시장반응;당정책전체출억제방지산업적신호시,산생현저위부적시장반응;당정책전체출인도방지산시장발전적신호시,산생현저위정적시장반응;시장반응위정혹부적정책대방지산시장적영향정도총체상몰유현저차이。연구환표명,정책빈발능구취득교호적조공효과,단과분밀집적정책회인위화전차정책간격시간과단이사정책효응수조。
This paper uses two-step regression to test the market reactions to the real estate macroeconomic regulation and control policies issued from 2002 to 2008.In general,these policies have apparent market reactions：when policies transfer restraining signals,reactions are remarkably negative;when policies transfer encouraging signals,reactions are remarkably positive;policies with different controlling directions have no remarkable impact on the market in total.Also,frequent regulations might lead to good results,but if they were too concentrated during a very short period,there must be too difficult to find any significant reactions.