CAJ | 학술논문

根据“林木市场成熟”的概念，确定“林木市场成熟龄”的关键是要准确预测“目的产品的市场价格和市场需求”何时“达到最大”!通过对《林木市场成熟理论的提出与探讨》一书中的“林木市场成熟”概念、计算模型、所有“模拟案例”和“应用实证”分析来看，该书没有探讨预测理论与方法，更没有预测“目的产品的市场价格和市场需求”，论述的却是森林经营内部收益率达到最高时的年龄!由此可见，“林木市场成熟理论”计算方法所确定的“林木市场成熟龄”与其内涵是不一致的。通过进一步分析，指出：“林木市场成熟”理论既不利于发挥林业在改善生态环境、维护生态安全、提供多种林产品的作用，又会导致森林经营单位的森林经营陷入无序和混乱状态。因此，应慎防“林木市场成熟理论”给森林经理，特别是对我国林业带来的危害。
근거“림목시장성숙”적개념，학정“림목시장성숙령”적관건시요준학예측“목적산품적시장개격화시장수구”하시“체도최대”!통과대《림목시장성숙이론적제출여탐토》일서중적“림목시장성숙”개념、계산모형、소유“모의안례”화“응용실증”분석래간，해서몰유탐토예측이론여방법，경몰유예측“목적산품적시장개격화시장수구”，논술적각시삼림경영내부수익솔체도최고시적년령!유차가견，“림목시장성숙이론”계산방법소학정적“림목시장성숙령”여기내함시불일치적。통과진일보분석，지출：“림목시장성숙”이론기불리우발휘임업재개선생태배경、유호생태안전、제공다충림산품적작용，우회도치삼림경영단위적삼림경영함입무서화혼란상태。인차，응신방“림목시장성숙이론”급삼림경리，특별시대아국임업대래적위해。
According to the concept of Market-based Forest Maturity Theory, the key to define Market-based Forest Maturity Age is to predict when the market price and market demands of the objective products will reach the maximum. Analyzed on the concept, calculation models, simulation cases and application cases of Market-based Forest Maturity Theory, it can be seen that the author neither discussed the theory and method of prediction, nor the market price and demands of objective products, but intentionally placed the extra emphasis on the forest age when the Internal Rate Return of forest management reached the peak. This shows that Market-based Forest Maturity Age defined by the computational method of Market-based Forest Maturity Theory is not in accord with its connotation. Further analyzing shows that Market-based Forest Maturity Theory is not conducive to play in improving ecological environment, maintenance of ecological security and supplying a variety of forest products, and it even results in disorder and chaos in the forest management unit. Therefore, much attentions must be paid to Market-based Forest Maturity Theory, which will do harm to our forest management, especially to our forestry. f