CAJ | 학술논문

本文运用已有的文献，构建了一个理论模型分析汇率波动对跨国公司对外直接投资的影响，并用协整和误差修正模型分别检验了人民币汇率波动对市场导向型和成本导向型FDI流入中国的长短期影响。结果表明，跨国公司在中国的市场份额和在岗职工平均工资分别对市场导向型FDI和成本导向型FDI流入起关键作用，人民币汇率水平变化在长期对两种类型FDI流入影响不一致，汇率波动剧烈程度对两类FDI流入都有负面影响，汇率波动短期影响不显著。文章最后提出政策建议。
본문운용이유적문헌，구건료일개이론모형분석회솔파동대과국공사대외직접투자적영향，병용협정화오차수정모형분별검험료인민폐회솔파동대시장도향형화성본도향형FDI류입중국적장단기영향。결과표명，과국공사재중국적시장빈액화재강직공평균공자분별대시장도향형FDI화성본도향형FDI류입기관건작용，인민폐회솔수평변화재장기대량충류형FDI류입영향불일치，회솔파동극렬정도대량류FDI류입도유부면영향，회솔파동단기영향불현저。문장최후제출정책건의。
Based on some existing documents, this paper analyzes the theoretical model of the choice of multinational FDI, and utilizes the cointegration and VEC model to test the impact of the RMB exchange rate volatility on both market- oriented and cost-oriented FDI inflow. The result suggests that the market share of international companies in China and the average wage provided by these companies hold the key to the two kinds of FDI inflow respectively. In a long term, the RMB exchange rate volatility has negative impact on both types of FDI inflow, though the specific impact might differ for each. In a short term, the RMB exchange rate volatility has no obvious influence on the FDI inflow into China.