系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2010年
5期
835~840
,共null页
商品房 预售制度 固定价格合同 合约理论
商品房 預售製度 固定價格閤同 閤約理論
상품방 예수제도 고정개격합동 합약이론
housings; pre-sale system; fixed-price contract; contract theory
依据合约理论的分析框架,研究了中国大陆商品房预售市场较为常见的固定价格合同.首先研究不存在融资的固定价格合同,发现固定价格合同存在激励,但是,隐藏着不合理的风险分担机制,开发商在分享合同产出的同时却没有承担相匹配的风险,造成合同激励不足;其次,建立一个更接近现实(考虑融资和税收)的一般模型,并应用于宏观调控分析,比较研究发现允许开发商通过预售融资可以抑制商品房价格上涨;最后,构建了宏观调控函数,研究了政府通过宏观调控变量的协调变动对期房市场进行调控的可行性.
依據閤約理論的分析框架,研究瞭中國大陸商品房預售市場較為常見的固定價格閤同.首先研究不存在融資的固定價格閤同,髮現固定價格閤同存在激勵,但是,隱藏著不閤理的風險分擔機製,開髮商在分享閤同產齣的同時卻沒有承擔相匹配的風險,造成閤同激勵不足;其次,建立一箇更接近現實(攷慮融資和稅收)的一般模型,併應用于宏觀調控分析,比較研究髮現允許開髮商通過預售融資可以抑製商品房價格上漲;最後,構建瞭宏觀調控函數,研究瞭政府通過宏觀調控變量的協調變動對期房市場進行調控的可行性.
의거합약이론적분석광가,연구료중국대륙상품방예수시장교위상견적고정개격합동.수선연구불존재융자적고정개격합동,발현고정개격합동존재격려,단시,은장착불합리적풍험분담궤제,개발상재분향합동산출적동시각몰유승담상필배적풍험,조성합동격려불족;기차,건립일개경접근현실(고필융자화세수)적일반모형,병응용우굉관조공분석,비교연구발현윤허개발상통과예수융자가이억제상품방개격상창;최후,구건료굉관조공함수,연구료정부통과굉관조공변량적협조변동대기방시장진행조공적가행성.
According to the anafysis framework of contract theory,this paper analyzed the house pre-sale contract with fixed price that is more common in Chinese real estate market.First of all,we studied the house prosaic contract model without financing involved and found that incentive exists in the fixed price contract,but developers fail to undertake the matching risk while sharing output of the contract,which leads to insufficient incentive effect of fixed price contract:Secondly,we established the general house pre-sale contract model(considering financing and tax) which is more close to the reality of China and analyzed the problem of macro-control in pre-sale housing markets.Through the comparative study we found that allowing developers to finance by the pre-sale system can prevent housing price rising.Finally, we constructed the macro-control function and researched the feasibility of government's regulation on forward delivery housing market through the coordination of macroeconomic control variables.