上海金融
上海金融
상해금융
Shanghai Finance
2010年
5期
73~77
,共null页
实际有效汇率 格兰杰因果检验 先行指标
實際有效彙率 格蘭傑因果檢驗 先行指標
실제유효회솔 격란걸인과검험 선행지표
Real Effective Exchange Rate; Granger Causality Test; Leading Indicators
本文以宁波市2001～2009年涉外经济数据为研究对象,探索建立跨境资金流动监测预警指标体系。实证检验表明：国内经济增长、货币政策和人民币实际有效汇率等对跨境资金流动存在较为明显的先导作用;本文设计的监测预警指标体系能够揭示跨境资金流动变化的规律并发挥较好的预警作用。
本文以寧波市2001～2009年涉外經濟數據為研究對象,探索建立跨境資金流動鑑測預警指標體繫。實證檢驗錶明：國內經濟增長、貨幣政策和人民幣實際有效彙率等對跨境資金流動存在較為明顯的先導作用;本文設計的鑑測預警指標體繫能夠揭示跨境資金流動變化的規律併髮揮較好的預警作用。
본문이저파시2001～2009년섭외경제수거위연구대상,탐색건립과경자금류동감측예경지표체계。실증검험표명：국내경제증장、화폐정책화인민폐실제유효회솔등대과경자금류동존재교위명현적선도작용;본문설계적감측예경지표체계능구게시과경자금류동변화적규률병발휘교호적예경작용。
Based on the data of NingBo’s open economy during 2001-2009 periods, this paper tries to set up a leading indicators framework to regulate cross-border money inflow and outflow. From the outcome of empirical analysis, it is clear that domestic economic growth, monetary policy and real exchange rate of RMB precede cross-border money inflow and outflow. Besides, the leading indicators framework could reveal the pattern and channel of crossborder money and could play an important role in risk early warning.
