CAJ | 학술논문

丹江口大坝加高工程将动迁33万移民。为了实现和谐搬迁，有必要了解待迁移民对搬迁的态度及其影响因素。采用丹江口库区农村待迁移民194例入户问卷调查资料，进行二项逻辑回归分析，得到结论：目前农业收入比重、偏远村、较远村、成员平均年龄、户主年龄、家庭规模、农忙是否换工、户主受教育年限每变化一个单位。相应的愿意搬迁的发生比分别是26．6,8．7，3．1，0．9，0．7，0．5,0．2和0．1；其中，后5个变量是负向影响。由此可知，目前较高的非农收入比重，较好的地理位置、人力资源和政治资源。会显著降低搬迁意愿。因此，选择经济水平较高的安置地是提高搬迁意愿的重要因素；同时应针对各群体的不同预期。采用分步搬迁和灵活多样的安置、补偿方式。
단강구대패가고공정장동천33만이민。위료실현화해반천，유필요료해대천이민대반천적태도급기영향인소。채용단강구고구농촌대천이민194례입호문권조사자료，진행이항라집회귀분석，득도결론：목전농업수입비중、편원촌、교원촌、성원평균년령、호주년령、가정규모、농망시부환공、호주수교육년한매변화일개단위。상응적원의반천적발생비분별시26．6,8．7，3．1，0．9，0．7，0．5,0．2화0．1；기중，후5개변량시부향영향。유차가지，목전교고적비농수입비중，교호적지리위치、인력자원화정치자원。회현저강저반천의원。인차，선택경제수평교고적안치지시제고반천의원적중요인소；동시응침대각군체적불동예기。채용분보반천화령활다양적안치、보상방식。
Danjiangkou Dam Heightening Project will make about 330,000 people be relocated. It is imperative to know these people＇ s attitudes to relocation and the factors which lead to such attitudes. We argue the detenninant factor of attitudes is whether the expected benefits exceed the current income. By logistic regressive analysis of the data from the survey of 194 households＇ questionnaires in Danjiangkou reservoir area, we draw some conclusions ： the current agricultural income ratio, far away village, far village, average age of family members, age of household＇ s head, family size, exchanging labor or not in busy farming season, education level of household＇ s head and party members＇ quantity change in one unit, the OR of willing to relocate arc 26.6, 8.7, 3.1, 0.9, 0.7, 0.5, 0.2, 0.1 and 0.1. Among them, the last six indicators are negative effects. It can be seen, higher non - agricultural income proportion, better location, haman resources, political resources and social resources will influence attitudes negatively. So, at first, it is important to choose a better place than the origin one as the destination. Then, people should be removed step by step and the resettlement and compensation should be flexible.