CAJ | 학술논문

人口分布、资源环境和经济布局的空间协调是主体功能区划分和规划的重要基础和依据。合理的区域人口分布格局要实现不同的主体功能区容纳和发展适度规模的人口。这不仅受到人口自身数量的变化规律影响，而且还受到区域资源环境的约束．以及经济发展对生活水平的限制。本文以宁夏为例，在预测县级行政区人口数量的基础上，根据城市经济发展水平、建设用地面积、城市供水量和农村经济发展水平、粮食产量和农村供水量分别计算各县域内城市地区和农村地区的最优人口容量．将人口预测与人口容量进行综合分析。动态研究宁夏的人口分布格局。结果表明，宁夏北部川区人口自然增长的速度较慢．大部分县级行政区人口容量受土地因素的限制比经济发展和水资源的限制大，人口增长和人口容量的对比分析显示，此地区人口容量大，是未来人口集聚的主要地区；相比而言。南部地区人口自然增长速度较快。而人口容量受水资源和经济发展的限制较大，人口容量低，是需要转移人口的重点地区。此结果为主体功能区的划分和区域人口管理政策的制定提供了依据。
인구분포、자원배경화경제포국적공간협조시주체공능구화분화규화적중요기출화의거。합리적구역인구분포격국요실현불동적주체공능구용납화발전괄도규모적인구。저불부수도인구자신수량적변화규률영향，이차환수도구역자원배경적약속．이급경제발전대생활수평적한제。본문이저하위례，재예측현급행정구인구수량적기출상，근거성시경제발전수평、건설용지면적、성시공수량화농촌경제발전수평、양식산량화농촌공수량분별계산각현역내성시지구화농촌지구적최우인구용량．장인구예측여인구용량진행종합분석。동태연구저하적인구분포격국。결과표명，저하북부천구인구자연증장적속도교만．대부분현급행정구인구용량수토지인소적한제비경제발전화수자원적한제대，인구증장화인구용량적대비분석현시，차지구인구용량대，시미래인구집취적주요지구；상비이언。남부지구인구자연증장속도교쾌。이인구용량수수자원화경제발전적한제교대，인구용량저，시수요전이인구적중점지구。차결과위주체공능구적화분화구역인구관리정책적제정제공료의거。
The optimal population distribution is one of the serious elements concerned to the zoning and planning of main functional oriented areas （MFOA）. A rational population distribution of MFOA not only considers the quantity and distribution of population, but also cares about the spatial coordination of population with local natural resource, environment and economic development. This article takes Ningxia for example based on predicting of population guantity of counties in Ningxia. On the one hand, the amount of each county＇s population was projected in normal growth. On the other hand, the optimal population capacities of each county were determined separately by comparing economic carrying capacity, land carrying capacity, and water resource carrying capacity in urban and rural areas. It is concluded that population in the north Ningxia increased slowly, and the limit of land is more obvious than the limits of economic development and water resource for the population carrying capacity in most counties of this region, which may be the leading area for population agglomeration. On the contrary, population in the south increased rapidly, and water resource and economic development are the main limited factors for population carrying capacity there, which is supposed to emigration. In addition, the result of population increase and population carrying capacity is useful to the zoning of MFOA and establish suitable population management policies.