CAJ | 학술논문

采用协整检验和误差修正模型等计量经济学方法,就当前国内若干热点变动的宏观经济因素变量对汇改后人民币汇率的影响进行了实证研究,研究结果表明热点变动的中美利差水平、通货膨胀率差异水平以及外汇储备增长率与人民币升值幅度之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。长期来看,利差水平对人民币名义汇率影响程度较大,而短期内,外汇储备因素和人民币汇率自身变动的前期信息对其影响较为显著。
채용협정검험화오차수정모형등계량경제학방법,취당전국내약간열점변동적굉관경제인소변량대회개후인민폐회솔적영향진행료실증연구,연구결과표명열점변동적중미리차수평、통화팽창솔차이수평이급외회저비증장솔여인민폐승치폭도지간존재장기은정적균형관계。장기래간,리차수평대인민폐명의회솔영향정도교대,이단기내,외회저비인소화인민폐회솔자신변동적전기신식대기영향교위현저。
Based on the co-integration test,error correction model and other econometric methods,this paper empirically studies the impact of several hot macroeconomic factors on the current RMB exchange rate.The empirical results show that there exists a long-term stable co-integration relationship among interest rate differential,inflation rate differential,increasing rate of foreign exchange reserve and appreciation ratio of RMB nominal exchange rate.In the long run,interest rate differential has the most important influence on the RMB exchange rate,whereas,in the short run,the major influencial factors are foreign exchange reserve and its own former-term information.