CAJ | 학술논문

在国际金融危机背景下,拉动国内消费需求在我国的经济中发挥着越来越重要的作用,然而这需要强有力的社会保障体系作为支撑。本文利用经典的消费函数模型并予以创新,运用全国各地区2000-2007年的面板数据,实证分析了我国社会保障支出对居民消费的影响。研究发现,社会保障方面的投入会对消费水平有着较大的乘数效应。因此,可以通过增加对社会保障的投入,稳定居民对于未来的安全预期,从而扩大消费需求,实现向内需驱动型的经济增长模式转变。我国将五项社会保险纳入2010年财政预算可以视为转变经济增长方式的一个好势头。
재국제금융위궤배경하,랍동국내소비수구재아국적경제중발휘착월래월중요적작용,연이저수요강유력적사회보장체계작위지탱。본문이용경전적소비함수모형병여이창신,운용전국각지구2000-2007년적면판수거,실증분석료아국사회보장지출대거민소비적영향。연구발현,사회보장방면적투입회대소비수평유착교대적승수효응。인차,가이통과증가대사회보장적투입,은정거민대우미래적안전예기,종이확대소비수구,실현향내수구동형적경제증장모식전변。아국장오항사회보험납입2010년재정예산가이시위전변경제증장방식적일개호세두。
The lack of consumption capability in China is extremely serious in the period of international financial crisis.How to stimulate consumption attracts much attention.Stimulating consumption plays an increasing important role in Chinese economy,but this requires integrated social security to support.This paper uses the classical model of consumption function and innovates it in some degree,and uses the panel data of 2000-2007 in all regions of our country to analyze empiricaliy the relation of China＇s social security spending on the impact of household consumption.The study found that social security would put a greater level of consumption with a multiplier effect.Therefore,by increasing the input of social security,it can stable the future safety of residents which is expected to expand consumer demand,and can change to the demand-driven model of economic growth.It is a good sign for our country to bring social assurance into government budget of 2010.