CAJ | 학술논문

中国农村公共支出影响因素的分析结果表明,GDP是影响中国农村公共支出的重要因素,如果其他条件不变,中国农村公共支出将在今后相当长时期内随GDP水平上升而继续保持上升态势。除GDP外,另有若干因素显示了对中国农村公共支出的影响,其中政府治理水平和前期农村公共支出情况对农村公共支出有显著正向的影响,且贡献度较大;城乡储蓄存款、进出口总额、城乡居民人均纯收入对农村公共支出的影响为负;从经济发展的趋势看,城市化对农村公共支出的负面影响不容忽视。
중국농촌공공지출영향인소적분석결과표명,GDP시영향중국농촌공공지출적중요인소,여과기타조건불변,중국농촌공공지출장재금후상당장시기내수GDP수평상승이계속보지상승태세。제GDP외,령유약간인소현시료대중국농촌공공지출적영향,기중정부치리수평화전기농촌공공지출정황대농촌공공지출유현저정향적영향,차공헌도교대;성향저축존관、진출구총액、성향거민인균순수입대농촌공공지출적영향위부;종경제발전적추세간,성시화대농촌공공지출적부면영향불용홀시。
This article analyses the influence factor of China＇s rural public expenditure using the panel data of 31 provinces and cities from 1997 to 2006. The result indicates that GDP is the important factor of influencing China＇s rural public expenditure. If other conditions do not change, China＇s rural public expenditure will continue keeping the trends of rising with GDP within quite a long period in the future. Besides GDP, there are still some other factors which affect the China＇s rural public expenditure. Among the factors, the government administration and earlier expending state have promi- nent positive influence on the rural public expenditure, and the contribution degree is relatively great. The effect of saving a~ount of urban and rural areas, total import and export value, per capita net income of urban and rural residents to the rural public expenditure are negative. With economic development, the negative impact on rural public expenditure of the urbanization can not be ignored.