CAJ | 학술논문

基于中国1978-2008年时间序列数据，采用时变参数模型对我国政府支出对二元经济结构转化效果进行分析，结果表明：改革开放30年来，我国政府支出对城乡二元经济结构转化的影响曲线呈U形；政府分类支出方面，不同时期，政府分类支出对二元经济结构转化效果的影响不同。近年来，政府行政性支出和民生性支出对二元经济结构转化具有一定正向影响，但影响效果在不断下降；而基本建设支出对二元经济转化产生了负向影响。要通过制度创新调整政府支出结构，以促进二元经济结构向好的方向转化。
기우중국1978-2008년시간서렬수거，채용시변삼수모형대아국정부지출대이원경제결구전화효과진행분석，결과표명：개혁개방30년래，아국정부지출대성향이원경제결구전화적영향곡선정U형；정부분류지출방면，불동시기，정부분류지출대이원경제결구전화효과적영향불동。근년래，정부행정성지출화민생성지출대이원경제결구전화구유일정정향영향，단영향효과재불단하강；이기본건설지출대이원경제전화산생료부향영향。요통과제도창신조정정부지출결구，이촉진이원경제결구향호적방향전화。
Based on the China＇ s time series data from 1978 to 2008, this paper uses the time-varying parameter model to analyze the effect of government expenditures on dual economic structure transformation. The result shows that in three decades of reform and opening up, the government total expenditures on the urban-rural dual economic structure transformation shows U-shaped curve and that in terms of specific expenditures, in different periods, the government classified expenditure has the different effects on the dual economic structure transformation. In recent years, governmental administrative expenditure and livelihood expenditure have positive effect on the dual economic transformation, but the effect is falling, however, capital expenditure on infrastructure has negative impact on the dual economic transformation. Governmental expenditure structure should be adjusted by institutional innovation to promote dual economic structure to be transformed in positive direction.