CAJ | 학술논문

环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）是环境经济学中的一个经典假说,但目前采用空间计量方法进行研究的文献并不多见。本文基于中国1989—2007年省级面板数据,使用空间固定效应模型,对七种工业污染排放进行EKC实证分析。结果显示：我国地区工业污染排放具有较强的空间依赖关系;与传统面板模型相比,空间面板模型的估计结果是稳健的,并且模型的拟合优度以及回归系数显著性均有所提高;人均工业废水排放量与人均GDP之间为只有一个拐点的＂倒N型＂关系,人均工业废气与人均GDP为传统的两个拐点的＂倒N型＂关系,现处在曲线上升阶段,其他五种工业污染排放与人均GDP之间为＂倒U型＂关系。
배경고자열자곡선（EKC）시배경경제학중적일개경전가설,단목전채용공간계량방법진행연구적문헌병불다견。본문기우중국1989—2007년성급면판수거,사용공간고정효응모형,대칠충공업오염배방진행EKC실증분석。결과현시：아국지구공업오염배방구유교강적공간의뢰관계;여전통면판모형상비,공간면판모형적고계결과시은건적,병차모형적의합우도이급회귀계수현저성균유소제고;인균공업폐수배방량여인균GDP지간위지유일개괴점적＂도N형＂관계,인균공업폐기여인균GDP위전통적량개괴점적＂도N형＂관계,현처재곡선상승계단,기타오충공업오염배방여인균GDP지간위＂도U형＂관계。
The Environmental Kuznets Curve is a classic hypothesis in environmental economics,but empirical study based on spatial econometric approaches is rare.This paper tests the 7 industry environmental pollutions’ Kuznets curve models by using of spatial fixed-effect models based on Chinese interprovincial panel data set of yearly observations covering the time period 1989—2007.The results show that there exists strong spatial dependence in interprovincial pollution Emission data;estimation results of spatial panel data modes are robust compared to conventional panel data models and the goodness-of-fit and coefficients’ significance levels of the spatial models are improved;An inverted-N-shaped curve with only one inflection point exists between per capita industrial waste water emissions and per capita GDP.So does an inverted-N-shaped curve with two inflection points between per capita industrial waste gas emissions and per capita GDP,and inverted-U-shaped relationships are founded between five types of industrial pollution emissions and per capita GDP.