CAJ | 학술논문

本文从财富效应理论出发，运用E—G协整检验和Granger因果检验，探讨中国金融资产价格波动对经常项目失衡的影响。结论是由于中国资本市场本身的特点以及金融约束的存在，金融资产的财富效应在中国不明显；金融资产价格的上升导致实际有效汇率升值，但汇率变动效应的不完全使得经常项目盈余反而上升。本文认为必须稳步发展中国资本市场，提高金融资产的财富效应，促进消费以减少经常项目长期盈余；同时，刺激内需以提高私人消费，增加进口，实现经常项目相对平衡；升值无助于消除经常项目盈余，中国不应让人民币升值。
본문종재부효응이론출발，운용E—G협정검험화Granger인과검험，탐토중국금융자산개격파동대경상항목실형적영향。결론시유우중국자본시장본신적특점이급금융약속적존재，금융자산적재부효응재중국불명현；금융자산개격적상승도치실제유효회솔승치，단회솔변동효응적불완전사득경상항목영여반이상승。본문인위필수은보발전중국자본시장，제고금융자산적재부효응，촉진소비이감소경상항목장기영여；동시，자격내수이제고사인소비，증가진구，실현경상항목상대평형；승치무조우소제경상항목영여，중국불응양인민폐승치。
From the theory of wealth effect, the paper analyzes the fluctuations of China financial asset＇s price affecting the Current Account using E - G Cointegration test and Granger test. The conclusion is that since there are the China stock market＇s features and the financial constraints, the wealth effect is not so apparent. Rising of the stock＇ price led appreciation of the real exchange rate, while the uncompleted pass - through effect is existed, surpluses of the Current Account increase. To improve the wealth effect, the China capital market should be developed stably, and the private consume should be expanded to get down the trade surpluses~ Because revaluation of RMB cannot change the trade imbalance, China shouldn＇t have RMB revalued.