CAJ | 학술논문

房地产业对国民经济增长具有很强的带动效应。运用协整检验、误差修正模型、脉冲破响应函数等方法,从数量上研究房地产行业和三次产业的相关性,结果显示,房地产业对三次产业有明显的正影响,带动效应的大小顺序依次为第二产业、第三产业、第一产业。第三产业和房地产业在短期内出现失衡的可能性不大。这个结论和房地产业在国民经济中的主导地位相吻合,房地产业可引领三次产业乃至整个国民经济的增长。
방지산업대국민경제증장구유흔강적대동효응。운용협정검험、오차수정모형、맥충파향응함수등방법,종수량상연구방지산행업화삼차산업적상관성,결과현시,방지산업대삼차산업유명현적정영향,대동효응적대소순서의차위제이산업、제삼산업、제일산업。제삼산업화방지산업재단기내출현실형적가능성불대。저개결론화방지산업재국민경제중적주도지위상문합,방지산업가인령삼차산업내지정개국민경제적증장。
The development of real estate will directly impact the stability of the macro-economy.By quantitatively researching on the relationship between real estate and thrice industry,with conitegration analysis,ECM and IRF,the results show that real estate make remarkably positive impact on thrice industry,ranking in secondary industry,tertiary industry and primary industry.It＇s not possible to be unbalanced in tertiary industry and real estate recently.This result coordinates with the leading station of real estate in our economy,and real estate will be in leading station for development of real estate and the whole national economy.