CAJ | 학술논문

本文研究了我国通货膨胀的决定因素。我们分别运用向量误差修正模型（VECM）和结构向量自回归模型（SVAR）分析了月度同比和月度环比数据。研究表明，过剩流动性、产出缺口、房价和股价对通胀会产生正向影响。结构脉冲响应分析表明冲击的影响主要反映在前5个月，10个月后基本消失。我们发现，过剩流动性和产出缺121是影响通胀的重要因素。考虑到资产价格对通胀的溢出效应，中央银行应密切关注资产价格走势。同时，管理流动性的措施仍然是控制通胀的主要手段，然而进一步推进利率和汇率的自由化进程至关重要。
본문연구료아국통화팽창적결정인소。아문분별운용향량오차수정모형（VECM）화결구향량자회귀모형（SVAR）분석료월도동비화월도배비수거。연구표명，과잉류동성、산출결구、방개화고개대통창회산생정향영향。결구맥충향응분석표명충격적영향주요반영재전5개월，10개월후기본소실。아문발현，과잉류동성화산출결121시영향통창적중요인소。고필도자산개격대통창적일출효응，중앙은행응밀절관주자산개격주세。동시，관리류동성적조시잉연시공제통창적주요수단，연이진일보추진리솔화회솔적자유화진정지관중요。
The paper examines the determinants of inflation in China. The analyses of both year-on-year and month-on-month growth data confirm that excess liquidity, output gap, housing prices and stock prices positively affecting inflation. Impulse response analyses indicate that most effects occur during the initial five months and disappear after 10 months. The effects of real interest rates and exchange rates on inflation are relatively weak. Our results suggest that output gap is as important as excess liquidity in explaining inflation trajectory. The central bank should closely monitor asset prices given their spillovers to inflation. Currently liquidity measures are still central for controlling inflation, but further liberalization of interest rates and exchange rates are critical.