中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2010年
7期
129~135
,共null页
冯相昭 李丽平 田春秀 尚宏博
馮相昭 李麗平 田春秀 尚宏博
풍상소 리려평 전춘수 상굉박
清洁发展机制 可持续发展影响 评价方法
清潔髮展機製 可持續髮展影響 評價方法
청길발전궤제 가지속발전영향 평개방법
Clean Development Mechanism, Impacts on Sustainable Development, Assessment Methodology
目前,中国已成为开展和实施清洁发展机制(CDM)项目最多的国家及年可核证减排量(CER)签发量最大的国家。但是这些CDM项目是否在真正意义上促进了中国的可持续发展以及在多大程度上促进了可持续发展,较少研究文献涉及。为此.本研究开发了用于评价中国CDM项目对可持续发展影响的方法学即MATA-CDM—China,该方法学以多属性效用理论为指导,构建了包括目标层、系统层、变量层和要素层等四个层次的可持续发展评价指标体系,并运用绝对效用函数对指标体系所包含的9个具体评价指标进行效用赋值,同时结合问卷调查和Delphi法获得的各指标权重值,加总各效用值最终计算出所评价项目的可持续发展影响度。此外,以邯钢燃气-蒸汽联合循环发电项目为例,运用该方法执行可持续影响评价。最后指出该方法学存在的一定局限性。
目前,中國已成為開展和實施清潔髮展機製(CDM)項目最多的國傢及年可覈證減排量(CER)籤髮量最大的國傢。但是這些CDM項目是否在真正意義上促進瞭中國的可持續髮展以及在多大程度上促進瞭可持續髮展,較少研究文獻涉及。為此.本研究開髮瞭用于評價中國CDM項目對可持續髮展影響的方法學即MATA-CDM—China,該方法學以多屬性效用理論為指導,構建瞭包括目標層、繫統層、變量層和要素層等四箇層次的可持續髮展評價指標體繫,併運用絕對效用函數對指標體繫所包含的9箇具體評價指標進行效用賦值,同時結閤問捲調查和Delphi法穫得的各指標權重值,加總各效用值最終計算齣所評價項目的可持續髮展影響度。此外,以邯鋼燃氣-蒸汽聯閤循環髮電項目為例,運用該方法執行可持續影響評價。最後指齣該方法學存在的一定跼限性。
목전,중국이성위개전화실시청길발전궤제(CDM)항목최다적국가급년가핵증감배량(CER)첨발량최대적국가。단시저사CDM항목시부재진정의의상촉진료중국적가지속발전이급재다대정도상촉진료가지속발전,교소연구문헌섭급。위차.본연구개발료용우평개중국CDM항목대가지속발전영향적방법학즉MATA-CDM—China,해방법학이다속성효용이론위지도,구건료포괄목표층、계통층、변량층화요소층등사개층차적가지속발전평개지표체계,병운용절대효용함수대지표체계소포함적9개구체평개지표진행효용부치,동시결합문권조사화Delphi법획득적각지표권중치,가총각효용치최종계산출소평개항목적가지속발전영향도。차외,이함강연기-증기연합순배발전항목위례,운용해방법집행가지속영향평개。최후지출해방법학존재적일정국한성。
Actually, China has become the largest host country of CDM projects in the world, and also is such country which will issue the certified emission reductions (CER) most in the CDM international market. But it is not easy to assess whether the CDM projects implemented in China have in a true sense promoted the sustainable development in this country, and so far there is httle research hteratures to deal with it. Based on this consideration, we develop a multi- Multi-Attributive Assessment methodology of CDM Projects in China (MATA- CDM- China). The methodology takes the multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) as a guide, sets up a indicator system to assess sustainable development which consists of such four levels as objective level, system level, variable level and element level, evaluates the nine proposed indicator with specific value by means of absolute utility function, combines with various index weight of every indicator obtained from a questionnaire survey and the Delphi method, and finally calculates the degree of sustainable development of CDM projects by adding various weighted utility values. Besides, we take the CCPP project in Handan Steel Group as a case, and assess sustainable development impacts of this project with MATA- CDM- China approach. Finally, we admit there are certain limitations for this methodology.