CAJ | 학술논문

资源消费与经济增长之间的关系是环境经济学研究的重要领域。目前国内外研究主要集中于探讨能源消费与经济增长之间因果关系,而未有对区域资源总体消费与经济产出二者关系开展实证研究。本文以江苏省为例,运用协整理论和物质流分析方法首次尝试对江苏省1990-2007年资源消费和实际GDP二者因果关系进行检验和分析。研究结果表明,江苏省经济增长与资源消费之间存在协整关系,表现为资源消费拉动经济增长的长期的单向格兰杰因果关系。研究同时还对江苏省经济增长和资源保护战略提出了政策建议。研究结果表明了当前资源是江苏经济增长的关键要素,江苏在经济增长和资源利用战略等方面应当采取更加积极有效的对策。此外,研究提出的将基于物质流分析的资源消费核算方法与时间序列分析相结合的研究思路和研究方法集成具有较强的普适性,可以适用于同样正在经历快速工业化和城市化的国家和地区关于资源消费和经济增长的问题的讨论和研究。
자원소비여경제증장지간적관계시배경경제학연구적중요영역。목전국내외연구주요집중우탐토능원소비여경제증장지간인과관계,이미유대구역자원총체소비여경제산출이자관계개전실증연구。본문이강소성위례,운용협정이론화물질류분석방법수차상시대강소성1990-2007년자원소비화실제GDP이자인과관계진행검험화분석。연구결과표명,강소성경제증장여자원소비지간존재협정관계,표현위자원소비랍동경제증장적장기적단향격란걸인과관계。연구동시환대강소성경제증장화자원보호전략제출료정책건의。연구결과표명료당전자원시강소경제증장적관건요소,강소재경제증장화자원이용전략등방면응당채취경가적겁유효적대책。차외,연구제출적장기우물질류분석적자원소비핵산방법여시간서렬분석상결합적연구사로화연구방법집성구유교강적보괄성,가이괄용우동양정재경력쾌속공업화화성시화적국가화지구관우자원소비화경제증장적문제적토론화연구。
The relationship between resource consumption and economic growth is the outstanding emphasis of the study of environmental economics.Although a great deal of studies has been done for casual link between energy consumption and economic growth,few results are available for causality between total resource use and aggregate output.The article for the first time attempts to integrate the co-integration theory and material flow analysis approach to examine the casual relationship between resource use and real GDP for Jiangsu Province,during the period of 1990-2007.Our estimation indicates that real GDP and resource consumption for Jiangsu are co-integrated and there is only unidirectional long-run Granger causality running from resource consumption to real GDP but not the vice versa.The estimation results are of policy implication on economic development and resource conservation strategies for Jiangsu Province.The estimation results mean that resource is a limiting factor in economic growth.Thus more vigorous economic development and resource strategies should be adopted for Jiangsu Province.Furthermore,the creative idea about the integration of accounting method of resource consumption and econometric techniques employed in this study can be readily extended to cover other regions,which undergo the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization.