CAJ | 학술논문

朴素的概率衰减论是把逻辑和心理混同的产物,由心理活动中可能存在衰减而推断命题的真假有程度的不同,进而要求或者为了保全真的高程度而少推理,或者为了构造更复杂的理论而放弃真理概念。这种观点对逻辑推演、理论构造和科学发展都是障碍。就命题的真值以及推演的逻辑结构看,它们都是逻辑事件而不是随机事件,因而推理链条越长结论为真的概率越低之说就是语词误用。逻辑方面不存在概率衰减,只有心理方面才可能存在概率衰减。逻辑方面和心理方面尽管事实上不能分割开,但理论上必须有某种程度的区分。
박소적개솔쇠감론시파라집화심리혼동적산물,유심리활동중가능존재쇠감이추단명제적진가유정도적불동,진이요구혹자위료보전진적고정도이소추리,혹자위료구조경복잡적이론이방기진리개념。저충관점대라집추연、이론구조화과학발전도시장애。취명제적진치이급추연적라집결구간,타문도시라집사건이불시수궤사건,인이추리련조월장결론위진적개솔월저지설취시어사오용。라집방면불존재개솔쇠감,지유심리방면재가능존재개솔쇠감。라집방면화심리방면진관사실상불능분할개,단이론상필수유모충정도적구분。
The naive theory of decrease of probability is the product of logical structure and psychological activities,in which the degree of individual＇s belief in propositions downgrades in the process of inference.This point of view in fact impedes the development of logical reasoning,construction of theory and development of science.Truth value and logical structure of inference are logical incidents rather than incidental happenings,thus,it is problematic to conclude that the longer the reasoning process,the lower the probability of the true conclusion.This paper argues that decrease of probability exists in psychology rather than in logic.Logic and psychology are interrelated to each other in reality,however,they should be separated from each other to some extent in theory.