CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于近年来发展的COMPAS模型,首次从理论上揭示反倾销措施如何通过价格机制对进口竞争行业的产出、价格以及收益等指标产生影响;并基于2001年我国铜版纸市场有关数据,应用COMPAS模型就我国铜版纸反倾销措施的产业救济效果进行了实证评估。实证结果表明,仅在2002年,反倾销措施将使国产铜版纸产量增加24.7%,产品价格大约上涨7.6%,全行业收益增加34.3%;不过反倾销措施给我国消费者福利以及社会总福利所造成的损失也分别达16.9亿元和3.7亿元。本文的研究不仅为准确评估反倾销措施产业救济效果提供了一个科学的方法,而且也为我国反倾销措施的制定与实施提供了产业层面上的一些客观依据。
본문기우근년래발전적COMPAS모형,수차종이론상게시반경소조시여하통과개격궤제대진구경쟁행업적산출、개격이급수익등지표산생영향;병기우2001년아국동판지시장유관수거,응용COMPAS모형취아국동판지반경소조시적산업구제효과진행료실증평고。실증결과표명,부재2002년,반경소조시장사국산동판지산량증가24.7%,산품개격대약상창7.6%,전행업수익증가34.3%;불과반경소조시급아국소비자복리이급사회총복리소조성적손실야분별체16.9억원화3.7억원。본문적연구불부위준학평고반경소조시산업구제효과제공료일개과학적방법,이차야위아국반경소조시적제정여실시제공료산업층면상적일사객관의거。
Based on recently developed COMPAS model, this paper analysises theoreticaly how antidumping measures affect the outputs, export flows and welfare of the related countries at the industry level. Then using the data of the 2001 China＇s coated paper anti-dumping case, we simulate the trade effects, output effects and welfare effects of China＇s antidumping measure. The results of simulation show that China＇s antidumping measurs against dumped coated paper in 2002 will enable China- made coated paper prices rise about 7.6 percent, the output increases 24.7 percent, and the industry-wide revenue increases 34.3%. Meanwhile, the anti-dumping measure causes China＇s consumer welfare and social welfare decrease by 1.69 billion yuan and 0.37 billion yuan repectively. The research of this paper not only has provided a scientific assessment method to study economic effects of antidumping, but also has provided a realistic basis for China＇s implement of antidumping measures.