经济研究
經濟研究
경제연구
Economic Research Journal
2010年
8期
66~78
,共null页
城市化 二氧化碳排放 能源强度 能源结构
城市化 二氧化碳排放 能源彊度 能源結構
성시화 이양화탄배방 능원강도 능원결구
Urbanization ; Carbon Dioxide Emissions ; Energy Intensity ; Energy Structure
作为目前国际上碳排放总量和增量都是最大的国家，中国碳减排的国际压力日益增大，而所处的城市化经济发展阶段的能源需求特征又使得碳减排相对困难，因此，制定现阶段的碳减排政策是中国政府最为紧迫的任夯。本文针对中国当前阶段性经济增长和能源消费特征，对Kaya恒等式做出适当修正，引入城市化因素，研究了现阶段碳排放的影响因素。本文选用协整的方法研究了CO，排放量与主要变量之间的长期均衡关系。采用蒙特卡洛模拟法，动态地解释和预测了在各解释变量服从既定概率分布的前提下中国CO，排放量的增长情形。中国在城市化进程中控制碳排放增量，实现低碳转型应当在保证GDP增长的前提下，通过控制城市化速度和将城市化进程作为低碳发展的机会，以及通过降低能源强度（节能）和改善能源结构（通过增加清洁能源在能源消费结构中的比重）来实现。低碳转型战略的选择应该是：节能为主，发展清洁能源为辅。
作為目前國際上碳排放總量和增量都是最大的國傢，中國碳減排的國際壓力日益增大，而所處的城市化經濟髮展階段的能源需求特徵又使得碳減排相對睏難，因此，製定現階段的碳減排政策是中國政府最為緊迫的任夯。本文針對中國噹前階段性經濟增長和能源消費特徵，對Kaya恆等式做齣適噹脩正，引入城市化因素，研究瞭現階段碳排放的影響因素。本文選用協整的方法研究瞭CO，排放量與主要變量之間的長期均衡關繫。採用矇特卡洛模擬法，動態地解釋和預測瞭在各解釋變量服從既定概率分佈的前提下中國CO，排放量的增長情形。中國在城市化進程中控製碳排放增量，實現低碳轉型應噹在保證GDP增長的前提下，通過控製城市化速度和將城市化進程作為低碳髮展的機會，以及通過降低能源彊度（節能）和改善能源結構（通過增加清潔能源在能源消費結構中的比重）來實現。低碳轉型戰略的選擇應該是：節能為主，髮展清潔能源為輔。
작위목전국제상탄배방총량화증량도시최대적국가，중국탄감배적국제압력일익증대，이소처적성시화경제발전계단적능원수구특정우사득탄감배상대곤난，인차，제정현계단적탄감배정책시중국정부최위긴박적임항。본문침대중국당전계단성경제증장화능원소비특정，대Kaya항등식주출괄당수정，인입성시화인소，연구료현계단탄배방적영향인소。본문선용협정적방법연구료CO，배방량여주요변량지간적장기균형관계。채용몽특잡락모의법，동태지해석화예측료재각해석변량복종기정개솔분포적전제하중국CO，배방량적증장정형。중국재성시화진정중공제탄배방증량，실현저탄전형응당재보증GDP증장적전제하，통과공제성시화속도화장성시화진정작위저탄발전적궤회，이급통과강저능원강도（절능）화개선능원결구（통과증가청길능원재능원소비결구중적비중）래실현。저탄전형전략적선택응해시：절능위주，발전청길능원위보。
China is in its urbanization stage. As the largest carbon emission country both in term of quantity and incremental, China faces increasing international pressure in carbon reduction. However, its urbanization development stage makes carbon emission reduction very difficult and the abatement policies for the current development stage become very urgent. In view of the characters reflected in China＇s current urbanization stage and China＇ s birth control policy, this article makes some amendments of Kaya identity by introducing the effect of urbanization to study the factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions in the current development stage, and therefore has practical policy implications. The long-term equilibrium relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and explanatory variables is studied by the method of co-integration. Applying Monte Carlo simulation, we provide a dynamic explanation and forecast of China＇ s carbon dioxide emission growth as well as its distribution based on the assumed probability distributions for each explanatory variables. For China, the more realistic and feasible means to reduce carbon dioxide emissions are contrelling pace of urbanization process and utilize urbanization as a process for energy conservation, reducing energy intensity （by energy conservation） and improving energy structure （by increasing the proportion of clean energy in the energy structure）. Strategically, China＇s low carbon transition will rely mainly on energy conservation, while clean energy development subsidiary.
