CAJ | 학술논문

本文梳理了解释美国经常账户失衡的各类假说,并以美国的情况为借鉴,提出了对中国经常账户失衡的几种解释思路。文章发现经常账户的实际水平与理论均衡水平的差值为稳定序列,但并不收敛于零,表明经常账户的失衡具有一定的持续性。然后通过设计两元选择模型对导致失衡的机制进行实证分析;结论发现“投资－储蓄缺口”假说得到了中国数据的支持,同时发现国民收入也是决定经常账户盈余或者赤字的关键变量。这说明我国经常账户的变化更多地内生于其特有的经济增长模式,对经常账户失衡状态的矫正需要内部经济结构的改革和理顺经济运行机制措施的配合。
본문소리료해석미국경상장호실형적각류가설,병이미국적정황위차감,제출료대중국경상장호실형적궤충해석사로。문장발현경상장호적실제수평여이론균형수평적차치위은정서렬,단병불수렴우령,표명경상장호적실형구유일정적지속성。연후통과설계량원선택모형대도치실형적궤제진행실증분석;결론발현“투자－저축결구”가설득도료중국수거적지지,동시발현국민수입야시결정경상장호영여혹자적자적관건변량。저설명아국경상장호적변화경다지내생우기특유적경제증장모식,대경상장호실형상태적교정수요내부경제결구적개혁화리순경제운행궤제조시적배합。
The article reviews some explanatory hypotheses of the unbalance of US＇s current account, and pro- poses several explanations on the unbalance of China＇s current account. The article finds out that the difference between real level of current account and the theoretical equilibrium level is stable series, but doesn＇t converge to zero. This finding indicates the consistency of the unbalance of current account. The article then designs a binary choice model to empirically analyze the mechanism behind such unbalance. The result shows that the ＂investment-saving gap＂ hypothesis is backed with China＇s data, and GNP is the key variable to determine the settlement of current account. The change in China＇s current account is decided by intrinsic economic growth model. And the correction of the unbalance of current account needs the cooperation of economic structure reform and relevant economic mechanisms.