CAJ | 학술논문

人民币升值问题始于2003年,我国于2005年7月实行了新的汇率制度改革,本次汇改后人民币出现稳步小幅升值过程,但是小幅升值并没有完全释放人民币升值压力。2010年中美有关人民币升值问题波澜再起,人民币升值呼声高涨。本质上,人民币升值压力并非经济基本因素所致,而是供求机制中的非对称性使然。本文以1998-2009年出口退税为例,运用两阶段最小二乘法及普通最小二乘法分析了人民币升值压力中的非对称性,结果表明,出口退税政策对人民币升值具有重要的促进作用。
인민폐승치문제시우2003년,아국우2005년7월실행료신적회솔제도개혁,본차회개후인민폐출현은보소폭승치과정,단시소폭승치병몰유완전석방인민폐승치압력。2010년중미유관인민폐승치문제파란재기,인민폐승치호성고창。본질상,인민폐승치압력병비경제기본인소소치,이시공구궤제중적비대칭성사연。본문이1998-2009년출구퇴세위례,운용량계단최소이승법급보통최소이승법분석료인민폐승치압력중적비대칭성,결과표명,출구퇴세정책대인민폐승치구유중요적촉진작용。
The issue of RMB appreciation rose at 2003, and China started the exchange rate regime reform at July, 2005. Since the reform, RMB have experienced a process of gradual appreciation. However, the pressure of RMB appreciation is still not released. In 2010, China and US debated over the issue of RMB appreciation, and voices demanding RMB to appreciate rose. Essentially, the pressure of RMB appreciation is not caused by economic fundamentals. It is cause rather by the non-symmetry of Demand-Supply mechanism. The article applies the TSLS and the OLS models to analyze the non-symmetry in the pressure of RMB appreciation based on export rebate from 1998 to 2009, and the result indicates that export rebate has an important stimulating effect on RMB appreciation.