CAJ | 학술논문

中国学术界和政策研究部门普遍认为实施增值税转型能够刺激投资，促进经济增长，但没有充分认识到这个转型也会扭曲资本与劳动相对价格，产生资本对劳动的替代效应，对就业造成负面影响。而过去用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型研究中国增值税转型的文献，大多假设中国是处在劳动和资本充分就业的新古典主义框架下，忽视了这个替代作用。和以往研究不同，本文考虑了中国的特殊国情、要素市场和宏观经济形势，设置了一个凯恩斯和剩余劳动力状况下的宏观闭合的CGE模型，在此框架下模拟增值税转型对于宏观经济与就业的政策效应。本研究发现，增值税转型对于实际GDP的刺激非常有限，却可能造成多至444万人数的新增失业。在同样的减税成本下，如果采取无歧视减税政策，即将原生产型增值税税率向下普调2％，会同时增加就业、更大程度地刺激整体经济和提高居民福利水平。在中国国情下，无歧视减税政策比增值税转型更优选。
중국학술계화정책연구부문보편인위실시증치세전형능구자격투자，촉진경제증장，단몰유충분인식도저개전형야회뉴곡자본여노동상대개격，산생자본대노동적체대효응，대취업조성부면영향。이과거용가계산일반균형（CGE）모형연구중국증치세전형적문헌，대다가설중국시처재노동화자본충분취업적신고전주의광가하，홀시료저개체대작용。화이왕연구불동，본문고필료중국적특수국정、요소시장화굉관경제형세，설치료일개개은사화잉여노동력상황하적굉관폐합적CGE모형，재차광가하모의증치세전형대우굉관경제여취업적정책효응。본연구발현，증치세전형대우실제GDP적자격비상유한，각가능조성다지444만인수적신증실업。재동양적감세성본하，여과채취무기시감세정책，즉장원생산형증치세세솔향하보조2％，회동시증가취업、경대정도지자격정체경제화제고거민복이수평。재중국국정하，무기시감세정책비증치세전형경우선。
It is commonly considered by most scholars and previous literatures that consumption type will promote economic growth and benefit the Chinese economy. would also cause a distortion in the relative factor prices, causing substituting labor the labor market and employment. Our analysis based on a CGE model with a the VAT tax reform from the production type to However, this change in the VAT tax system with capital, and creating a negative impact on Keynesian macroeconomic closure and flexible endogenous investment finds that the VAT tax change in China would result in a very minor increase in GDP （0.128%） but a great loss of employment of 4.44 million. An alternative policy of a uniform VAT tax rate cut for both labor and fixed capital consumption by 2 % at the same government budgetary cost will lead to a much better outcome in employment and GDP growth.