系统工程理论与实践
繫統工程理論與實踐
계통공정이론여실천
Systems Engineering—Theory & Practice
2010年
9期
1622~1629
,共null页
蔡志强 孙树栋 司书宾 王宁
蔡誌彊 孫樹棟 司書賓 王寧
채지강 손수동 사서빈 왕저
贝叶斯网络 不确定性 多阶段 多目标 决策模型
貝葉斯網絡 不確定性 多階段 多目標 決策模型
패협사망락 불학정성 다계단 다목표 결책모형
Bayesian network; uncertainty; multi-stage; multi-object; decision making model
在贝叶斯网络的基础上进行扩展，提出了一种不确定多阶段多目标（Uncertainty,multistage and multi—object，UMM）决策模型来求解不确定环境下的多阶段多目标决策问题．首先描述了不确定环境下多目标多阶段决策问题的数学描述，然后给出了决策模型的定义，详述了其构建方法及求解算法．采用此模型求解决策问题时，决策者只需考虑某节点与其父节点之间的依赖关系，降低了思考的复杂程度，适用于大规模的复杂问题求解．实际案例分析表明基于贝叶斯网络的决策模型描述、建模及求解方法对不确定环境下的多阶段多目标决策问题是有效的．
在貝葉斯網絡的基礎上進行擴展，提齣瞭一種不確定多階段多目標（Uncertainty,multistage and multi—object，UMM）決策模型來求解不確定環境下的多階段多目標決策問題．首先描述瞭不確定環境下多目標多階段決策問題的數學描述，然後給齣瞭決策模型的定義，詳述瞭其構建方法及求解算法．採用此模型求解決策問題時，決策者隻需攷慮某節點與其父節點之間的依賴關繫，降低瞭思攷的複雜程度，適用于大規模的複雜問題求解．實際案例分析錶明基于貝葉斯網絡的決策模型描述、建模及求解方法對不確定環境下的多階段多目標決策問題是有效的．
재패협사망락적기출상진행확전，제출료일충불학정다계단다목표（Uncertainty,multistage and multi—object，UMM）결책모형래구해불학정배경하적다계단다목표결책문제．수선묘술료불학정배경하다목표다계단결책문제적수학묘술，연후급출료결책모형적정의，상술료기구건방법급구해산법．채용차모형구해결책문제시，결책자지수고필모절점여기부절점지간적의뢰관계，강저료사고적복잡정도，괄용우대규모적복잡문제구해．실제안례분석표명기우패협사망락적결책모형묘술、건모급구해방법대불학정배경하적다계단다목표결책문제시유효적．
A newly defined UMM （uncertainty, multi-stage and multi-object） decision making model is illustrated based on the Bayesian network to deal with the multi-stage, multi-object decision making problem under uncertainty. The mathematic description of this decision problem is put forward at first. The definition of UMM decision model, the modeling methodology and the calculation algorithm are all described in details afterwards. With the UMM model, the decision maker could just focus on the relationships between nodes and their father nodes, which makes the model application more convenient. At last, the procedure for implementing the UMM decision model is demonstrated based on a case study of maintenance scheme decision making. With the case study, it is verified this model＇s effectiveness in solving the multi-stage, multi-object decision making problem under uncertainty.
