CAJ | 학술논문

2005年汇改以来，特别是进入2007年下半年以来，随着次贷危机的蔓延，人民币汇率的升值速度和波动幅度显著增加。本文基于2005年8月到2010年2月的月度数据，运用ADF检验、格兰杰检验，并构建最小二乘回归和误差修正模型，分析人民币实际汇率与国际收支中经常项目和资本项目的关系。实证结果表明：长期来看，人民币实际汇率升值有利于平衡中关经常项目顺差，表现在：人民币实际汇率升值对中国向美国出口有较大负面影响；而对中国从美国进口的拉动作用不大；并且人民币升值不利于平衡中美资本项目顺差，人民币实际汇率升值不仅不会导致美国流入中国FDI的减少，反而能够促进FDI流入的增加。
2005년회개이래，특별시진입2007년하반년이래，수착차대위궤적만연，인민폐회솔적승치속도화파동폭도현저증가。본문기우2005년8월도2010년2월적월도수거，운용ADF검험、격란걸검험，병구건최소이승회귀화오차수정모형，분석인민폐실제회솔여국제수지중경상항목화자본항목적관계。실증결과표명：장기래간，인민폐실제회솔승치유리우평형중관경상항목순차，표현재：인민폐실제회솔승치대중국향미국출구유교대부면영향；이대중국종미국진구적랍동작용불대；병차인민폐승치불리우평형중미자본항목순차，인민폐실제회솔승치불부불회도치미국류입중국FDI적감소，반이능구촉진FDI류입적증가。
Since the exchange rate reform from 2005, especially since the second half of 2007, with the spread of the subprime crisis, the appreciation speed and volatility range of RMB exchange rate increase significantly. Based on the monthly data from August 2005 to February 2010, using the ADF test, Granger test, and through establishing the OLS model and VEC model, this paper analyzes the relations between real exchange rate of RMB and the balance of payments which include the current account and capital account. The empirical results show that： in the long run, a favorable balance of RMB real exchange rate has a positive influence on the US current account surplus, and this reflects in that： the appreciation of RMB real exchange rate has greater negative effect on export from China to the US, but has only little pulling effect on China＇ s import from US; the appreciation of RMB is not conducive to balancing the Sino-US capital account surplus, and the RMB real exchange rate appreciation not only cannot lead to reduction in US FDI flowing into China, but can contribute to the increase in FDI inflows.