CAJ | 학술논문

在国内外已有的研究基础上，从压力-状态-响应3个方面构建了石家庄市生态安全预警评价指标体系，并基于模糊数学模型，结合EXCEL程序，建立了生态安全预警评价计算模型（FE模型）。利用所构建的指标体系及FE模型，从时间尺度上（1999-2020年）对石家庄市的生态安全预警状态进行了定量评估和动态趋势分析。结果表明，石家庄市生态安全预警综合指数从1999年的7．367（中警）降低到2008年的5．769（轻警），生态安全整体水平呈逐年上升趋势，2010，2015，2020年石家庄市的生态安全预警综合指数分别为5．324，4．959，4．742，未来近10年（2010-2020年）石家庄市的生态安全预警状态从一般逐渐过度到良好。
재국내외이유적연구기출상，종압력-상태-향응3개방면구건료석가장시생태안전예경평개지표체계，병기우모호수학모형，결합EXCEL정서，건립료생태안전예경평개계산모형（FE모형）。이용소구건적지표체계급FE모형，종시간척도상（1999-2020년）대석가장시적생태안전예경상태진행료정량평고화동태추세분석。결과표명，석가장시생태안전예경종합지수종1999년적7．367（중경）강저도2008년적5．769（경경），생태안전정체수평정축년상승추세，2010，2015，2020년석가장시적생태안전예경종합지수분별위5．324，4．959，4．742，미래근10년（2010-2020년）석가장시적생태안전예경상태종일반축점과도도량호。
Based on historical research and related literature, ecological security early-warning evaluation sys- tem of the Shijiazhuang City is brought forward from three aspects of the Pressure-State-Response, and ecological security evaluation model for early-warning based on fuzzy math, combined with EXCEL procedures, which is referred to as the FE model, is set up in this paper. And then, using the index system and the FE model, from the time scales （1999--2020） ,the ecological security of Shijiazhuang City is quantitatively evaluated and analyzed for early-warning. The results show that the ecological security index for early-warning of Shijiazhuang City reduced from 7. 367 （police） in 1999 to 5. 769 （ light police） in 2008, the overall level of ecological security was an upward trend year after year, the ecological security index for early-warning of Shijiazhuang City in 2010,2015,2020 was 5. 324, 4. 959, 4.974 respectively, the state of ecological security for early-warning is gradually from general to good in the future （2010--2020）.