CAJ | 학술논문

借鉴FDI与货物贸易的关系理论，本文探讨了服务业FDI流入对东道国服务贸易出口的影响机理及促进路径。采用我国1992-2008年的相关数据，运用协整理论与误差修正模型等计量经济学方法，对我国服务业FDI与服务贸易出口的互动关系进行了经验研究。结果表明，我国服务贸易出口与服务业FDI、货物贸易出口之间存在一个长期稳定的均衡关系，服务业FDI与货物贸易出口对我国服务贸易出口的总体影响均是正向的，说明服务业FDI对我国服务贸易出口的促进效应要高于其替代效应；ECM模型显示，三者之间的关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度很快，且服务业FIDI的短期变动对我国服务贸易出口的正向影响要大于货物贸易出口。根据研究结论，提出了利用服务业FDI及货物贸易出口发展我国服务贸易出口的针对性建议。
차감FDI여화물무역적관계이론，본문탐토료복무업FDI류입대동도국복무무역출구적영향궤리급촉진로경。채용아국1992-2008년적상관수거，운용협정이론여오차수정모형등계량경제학방법，대아국복무업FDI여복무무역출구적호동관계진행료경험연구。결과표명，아국복무무역출구여복무업FDI、화물무역출구지간존재일개장기은정적균형관계，복무업FDI여화물무역출구대아국복무무역출구적총체영향균시정향적，설명복무업FDI대아국복무무역출구적촉진효응요고우기체대효응；ECM모형현시，삼자지간적관계유단기편리향장기균형조정적속도흔쾌，차복무업FIDI적단기변동대아국복무무역출구적정향영향요대우화물무역출구。근거연구결론，제출료이용복무업FDI급화물무역출구발전아국복무무역출구적침대성건의。
Referring to the relationship theories between FDI and goods trade, this paper discusses the effect mechanism and promotion path of service FDI to host country＇ s service trade exports. In accordance with the co-integration theory and error correction model, the paper analyzes the interaction relationship between service FDI and service trade exports based on China＇ s rele- vant data from 1992 to 2008. The result shows that there exists a long-term stable equilibrium rela- tionship among service FDI, goods trade exports and service trade exports, the impact direction of service FDI and goods trade exports on service trade exports is overall positive, which indicates service FDI has more promotion effect than substitution effect on China＇ s service trade exports. ECM model shows that the speed of correction is very quick from short fluctuation to long-term equilibrium, and the positive effect of short-term fluctuation in service FDI on China＇ s service trade exports is more significant than goods trade exports. According to the empirical conclusions, the paper proposes some relevant suggestions in order to develop China＇ s service trade exports.