CAJ | 학술논문

2008年金融危机以来,以美国为代表的贸易保护主义开始抬头,出口导向型的中国深受其害。回顾已有的文献,采用状态空间模型检验美国的边际进口倾向,描述美国贸易保护的周期性;通过对经济周期和政治周期的分析解释了美国贸易保护的周期性变化;然后运用案例分析的方法,验证了＂轮胎特保案＂中美国政治经济周期与贸易保护之间的关系。认为,对美国贸易保护的防范必须加强对美国经济周期和政治周期的研究,把握两种周期交织在一起所引发的贸易保护的周期性波动,加强国际协调,转变我国经济发展方式。
2008년금융위궤이래,이미국위대표적무역보호주의개시태두,출구도향형적중국심수기해。회고이유적문헌,채용상태공간모형검험미국적변제진구경향,묘술미국무역보호적주기성;통과대경제주기화정치주기적분석해석료미국무역보호적주기성변화;연후운용안례분석적방법,험증료＂륜태특보안＂중미국정치경제주기여무역보호지간적관계。인위,대미국무역보호적방범필수가강대미국경제주기화정치주기적연구,파악량충주기교직재일기소인발적무역보호적주기성파동,가강국제협조,전변아국경제발전방식。
Since the financial crisis in 2008,trade protectionism with the U.S.as representative has resurged and negatively affected China,which is an export-oriented country.Based on the previous researches,this paper adopts a state space model to examine the marginal propensity of American imports and describe the periodicity of U.S.trade protection.Also,it interprets the cyclical changes of the U.S.trade protection through the analysis of economic cycle and political cycle.It then adopts the method of case study to verify the relationship between the political and economic cycles and the U.S.trade protection in the ＂tires safeguard＂ case.It argues that the prevention from the U.S.trade protection should be based on the further study of the economic cycle and political cycle and on the grasp of the cyclical fluctuations of trade protection caused by the intertwined effect of the two cycles.Measures should be taken to strengthen international coordination and transform China＇s economic development model.