CAJ | 학술논문

弄清楚碳排量的重要宏观驱动因素可以为我们设计与碳减排相关的政策机制提供理论支撑.本文采用递阶偏最小二乘方法（Hi-PLS）进行了宏观驱动因素的研究,并将其与传统PLS模型进行了比较.实证过程采集了1952-2006年我国大陆区的社会、经济、人口及自然环境等方面共36个指标的数据进行.结果表明：与传统PLS模型相比,Hi-PLS用于该主题的研究更加有效,解释起来也更加方便具体;我国碳排放重要的宏观驱动因素来自于人类生活和生产等活动强度均较大的领域（如,邮电运输活动与教育文化活动等）及人口数量与经济发展水平,不重要的宏观驱动因素则来自于几乎无法反映人类活动强度的领域,如自然环境要素和艺术表演团体的个数等.
롱청초탄배량적중요굉관구동인소가이위아문설계여탄감배상관적정책궤제제공이론지탱.본문채용체계편최소이승방법（Hi-PLS）진행료굉관구동인소적연구,병장기여전통PLS모형진행료비교.실증과정채집료1952-2006년아국대륙구적사회、경제、인구급자연배경등방면공36개지표적수거진행.결과표명：여전통PLS모형상비,Hi-PLS용우해주제적연구경가유효,해석기래야경가방편구체;아국탄배방중요적굉관구동인소래자우인류생활화생산등활동강도균교대적영역（여,유전운수활동여교육문화활동등）급인구수량여경제발전수평,불중요적굉관구동인소칙래자우궤호무법반영인류활동강도적영역,여자연배경요소화예술표연단체적개수등.
To find out the main Major Drivers of carbon emissions can provide us theoretical support when we design the related policy mechanisms. In this paper, a new method （Hierarchical Partial Least Squares model, Hi-PLS） was adopted to study the macro drivers of carbon emissions and be compared with the traditional Partial Least Squares （PLS） model. Totally 36 indicators, including social, economic, population and natural environment aspects during 1952 - 2006 were collected. The results show： compared with the traditional PLS model, the Hi-PLS was more effective and more convenient and specific for explaining the results. According to our research, among the 36 indicators the main macro drivers of China＇ s carbon emissions came from the domains which were characterized by the intensive haman activities, such as transport, telecoiranlmications, education and culture industry and the population size and economic growth level, the unimportant Major Drivers come from the domains that can hardly reflect human activities＇ intensity, such as natural environmental factors and the nulnber of artistic performance groupsr.