CAJ | 학술논문

生育率变动的规模效应将长期存在;生育率变动的年龄结构效应将在正效应和负效应交替波动中逐渐收敛,最终趋于消逝,不如规模效应存续时间那么久远。我国人口发展战略应始终兼顾规模和结构两种效应。我国未来人口老化的加深、人口高＂红利＂的消失、人口高＂负债＂的形成,是以往和现在多个时期、多个阶段、多种因素促成的。就生育率而言,它包括以往过高的生育率,也包括后来较低的生育率。当前及未来一段时间,我国各地区共同的任务应该是创造条件进入稳定的适度低生育水平。
생육솔변동적규모효응장장기존재;생육솔변동적년령결구효응장재정효응화부효응교체파동중축점수렴,최종추우소서,불여규모효응존속시간나요구원。아국인구발전전략응시종겸고규모화결구량충효응。아국미래인구노화적가심、인구고＂홍리＂적소실、인구고＂부채＂적형성,시이왕화현재다개시기、다개계단、다충인소촉성적。취생육솔이언,타포괄이왕과고적생육솔,야포괄후래교저적생육솔。당전급미래일단시간,아국각지구공동적임무응해시창조조건진입은정적괄도저생육수평。
Quantitatively self demographic effects of Chinese population transition show that demographic effects on quantity will persist for a long time,and the positive or negative effects on age-structure will undulate and wither away in the end.The Chinese population transition and the intended low fertility in the future will jointly bring on the level of age increase,demographic dividend change,and the other demographic variables.As a Chinese population strategy,the attention should be paid to self demographic effects on quantity and age-structure,and the moderate low-fertility should be kept in China at present and in the future.