金融研究
金融研究
금융연구
Journal of Financial Research
2010年
10期
36~53
,共null页
跨期均衡 经常项目 平滑消赞 倾斜消费
跨期均衡 經常項目 平滑消讚 傾斜消費
과기균형 경상항목 평활소찬 경사소비
intertemporal equilibrium, current account, smoothing consumption, tilting consumption
本文引入跨期最优消费模型,将实际经常项目分解为平滑性经常项目与倾斜性经常项目,以考察经常项目受消费者行为和经济冲击的影响。研究发现:预期净产出增加导致平滑性经常项目逆差;预期净刚性支出增加造成倾斜性经常项目顺差;倾斜消费对经常项目作用效果超过平滑消费,形成实际经常项目顺差;短期内净产出暂时性冲击中的77.9%被经常项目吸收,长期内几乎全部被经常项目吸收;源于投资和政府支出的净产小持续性冲击将被经常项目完全吸收;源于产出的净产出持续性冲击27.8%被经常项目吸收。
本文引入跨期最優消費模型,將實際經常項目分解為平滑性經常項目與傾斜性經常項目,以攷察經常項目受消費者行為和經濟遲擊的影響。研究髮現:預期淨產齣增加導緻平滑性經常項目逆差;預期淨剛性支齣增加造成傾斜性經常項目順差;傾斜消費對經常項目作用效果超過平滑消費,形成實際經常項目順差;短期內淨產齣暫時性遲擊中的77.9%被經常項目吸收,長期內幾乎全部被經常項目吸收;源于投資和政府支齣的淨產小持續性遲擊將被經常項目完全吸收;源于產齣的淨產齣持續性遲擊27.8%被經常項目吸收。
본문인입과기최우소비모형,장실제경상항목분해위평활성경상항목여경사성경상항목,이고찰경상항목수소비자행위화경제충격적영향。연구발현:예기정산출증가도치평활성경상항목역차;예기정강성지출증가조성경사성경상항목순차;경사소비대경상항목작용효과초과평활소비,형성실제경상항목순차;단기내정산출잠시성충격중적77.9%피경상항목흡수,장기내궤호전부피경상항목흡수;원우투자화정부지출적정산소지속성충격장피경상항목완전흡수;원우산출적정산출지속성충격27.8%피경상항목흡수。
The paper introduces the intertemporal model of optional consumption to analyze the relationship between consumption and current account imbalance in China, and how current account response to the shock of net output. It is found that the deficit of consumption smoothing component of the current account is caused by the increase of expected net output. The surplus of consumption tilting component of the current account is caused by the increase in expected expenditures. Current account surplus is caused by the dominating of tilting consumption on future. Temporal shock from GDP, investment and government expenditure will be absorbed by current account completely in the long term and 77. 9% in the short term. Persistent shock from investment and government expenditure will be absorbed by current account completely. And only 27. 8 percent of persistent shock from GDP will be absorbed by current account, and the other 72. 2% percent will be absorbed by consumption.