中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2010年
11期
7~11
,共null页
中国工业 能源消耗 结构演变 结构变动系数
中國工業 能源消耗 結構縯變 結構變動繫數
중국공업 능원소모 결구연변 결구변동계수
energy consumption structure; evolution
中国是能源消耗大国,经济正处在转型时期,产业结构变化是否引起能耗结构变化是一个备受关注而又长期有争议的问题。一种观点认为能源消耗会随着产业结构升级而下降,另一种观点认为能源消耗会保持相对稳定,不受经济发展阶段的影响,确定两者之间的关系,对中国制定能源发展战略和有效利用能源有重要意义。本文用能源消耗结构变动系数方法,分析了1995-2007年工业能源消耗结构和结构的演变,发现多数产业能源消耗结构并没有变化,少数产业能耗比例下降或者上升,个别产业对能源消耗转变的情况。要降低能源消耗,必须降低能源消耗的总水平,同时提供能源利用效率。相应的对策是对高能耗产业进行技术改造,控制重点高能耗产业的规模和能源利用效率,能有效减少能源消耗。解决能源供需关系的政策建议是要加快重点耗能产业的技术更新,降低高能耗产业的能源消耗。进行能源价格改革,促进能源的节约和有效利用。开发新能源,减轻对传统能源的依赖。调整产品出口结构,减少高能耗产品的出口。
中國是能源消耗大國,經濟正處在轉型時期,產業結構變化是否引起能耗結構變化是一箇備受關註而又長期有爭議的問題。一種觀點認為能源消耗會隨著產業結構升級而下降,另一種觀點認為能源消耗會保持相對穩定,不受經濟髮展階段的影響,確定兩者之間的關繫,對中國製定能源髮展戰略和有效利用能源有重要意義。本文用能源消耗結構變動繫數方法,分析瞭1995-2007年工業能源消耗結構和結構的縯變,髮現多數產業能源消耗結構併沒有變化,少數產業能耗比例下降或者上升,箇彆產業對能源消耗轉變的情況。要降低能源消耗,必鬚降低能源消耗的總水平,同時提供能源利用效率。相應的對策是對高能耗產業進行技術改造,控製重點高能耗產業的規模和能源利用效率,能有效減少能源消耗。解決能源供需關繫的政策建議是要加快重點耗能產業的技術更新,降低高能耗產業的能源消耗。進行能源價格改革,促進能源的節約和有效利用。開髮新能源,減輕對傳統能源的依賴。調整產品齣口結構,減少高能耗產品的齣口。
중국시능원소모대국,경제정처재전형시기,산업결구변화시부인기능모결구변화시일개비수관주이우장기유쟁의적문제。일충관점인위능원소모회수착산업결구승급이하강,령일충관점인위능원소모회보지상대은정,불수경제발전계단적영향,학정량자지간적관계,대중국제정능원발전전략화유효이용능원유중요의의。본문용능원소모결구변동계수방법,분석료1995-2007년공업능원소모결구화결구적연변,발현다수산업능원소모결구병몰유변화,소수산업능모비례하강혹자상승,개별산업대능원소모전변적정황。요강저능원소모,필수강저능원소모적총수평,동시제공능원이용효솔。상응적대책시대고능모산업진행기술개조,공제중점고능모산업적규모화능원이용효솔,능유효감소능원소모。해결능원공수관계적정책건의시요가쾌중점모능산업적기술경신,강저고능모산업적능원소모。진행능원개격개혁,촉진능원적절약화유효이용。개발신능원,감경대전통능원적의뢰。조정산품출구결구,감소고능모산품적출구。
China＇s economy is in transition phase with huge energy consumption.There is a concern and long-term controversy whether energy structure is caused by industrial changes.One opinion is that energy consumption will decline along with upgrading the industrial structure,and the other view is that energy consumption will remain relatively stabe to be free from the influence of economic growth.It is important to determine the relationship between them for China＇s energy development strategy and efficient using of energy.Using the method of energy consumption structure changing coefficient,this paper analyzes industrial energy consumption structure and their evolutions from 1995 to 2007,the result is that energy consumption structures of most of industries hardly changed,a few industries have energy consumption decreased or increased,some industries also have energy consumption transformed.Taking technological transformation on the energy-intensive industries,controlling the size of key energy-intensive industries and their energy efficiencies,can reduce energy consumption.In order to reduce energy consumption,it must decrease the overall level of energy consumption and improve energy efficiency.Policy recommendations for energy supply and demand are as followings： speed up technological innovation in key energy-intensive industries and lower energy consumption.Reform energy price and promote energy conservation and efficiency.Develop new energy sources and reduce dependence on traditional energy sources.Adjust product structure of exports and reduce the export of high energy consumption products.
