财经研究
財經研究
재경연구
The Study of Finance and Economics
2010年
11期
115~126
,共null页
金融脱媒 马尔可夫状态转换 金融结构
金融脫媒 馬爾可伕狀態轉換 金融結構
금융탈매 마이가부상태전환 금융결구
financial disintermediation; Markov regime switching; financial structure
文章采用MS-AR模型对中国金融脱媒指标进行了深入解读:(1)近年来我国金融状态改革步伐的加快,并没有改变银行层面金融脱媒的运行轨道,平缓的金融脱媒仍是常态,偶尔几年的高速金融脱媒只是暂时性现象;(2)对于金融部门而言,在未来相当长的一段时间内平稳的金融脱媒还将延续,并且金融部门资产结构的调整落后于负债结构的变化;(3)非金融企业对"媒"的资金依赖将持续下降,由此带来的金融脱媒压力也将长期存在;(4)金融市场的发展以及金融工具种类的增加,至今仍未从根本上改变我国居民大量持有银行资产的状况。
文章採用MS-AR模型對中國金融脫媒指標進行瞭深入解讀:(1)近年來我國金融狀態改革步伐的加快,併沒有改變銀行層麵金融脫媒的運行軌道,平緩的金融脫媒仍是常態,偶爾幾年的高速金融脫媒隻是暫時性現象;(2)對于金融部門而言,在未來相噹長的一段時間內平穩的金融脫媒還將延續,併且金融部門資產結構的調整落後于負債結構的變化;(3)非金融企業對"媒"的資金依賴將持續下降,由此帶來的金融脫媒壓力也將長期存在;(4)金融市場的髮展以及金融工具種類的增加,至今仍未從根本上改變我國居民大量持有銀行資產的狀況。
문장채용MS-AR모형대중국금융탈매지표진행료심입해독:(1)근년래아국금융상태개혁보벌적가쾌,병몰유개변은행층면금융탈매적운행궤도,평완적금융탈매잉시상태,우이궤년적고속금융탈매지시잠시성현상;(2)대우금융부문이언,재미래상당장적일단시간내평은적금융탈매환장연속,병차금융부문자산결구적조정락후우부채결구적변화;(3)비금융기업대"매"적자금의뢰장지속하강,유차대래적금융탈매압력야장장기존재;(4)금융시장적발전이급금융공구충류적증가,지금잉미종근본상개변아국거민대량지유은행자산적상황。
Based on MS-AR model,the paper explains financial disintermediation indexes in depth.The results are as follows:firstly,accelerated pace of financial system reform in China in recent years does not change the orbit of financial disintermediation in the banking level,and mild financial disintermediation is still the normality,while rapid financial disintermediation is only a temporary phenomenon;secondly,as for financial sectors,steady financial disintermediation will continue in the future,and the adjustment of assets structure of financial sectors is behind the change of liability composition;thirdly,non-financial companies' funding reliance on the intermediary will continue to decrease,and the financial disintermediation pressures will persist in the long run;fourthly,the development of financial markets and the increase in types of financial instruments have not fundamentally changed the tendency of holding a great deal of banking assets by Chinese households.