经济研究
經濟研究
경제연구
Economic Research Journal
2010年
11期
48~58
,共null页
最优碳税 二氧化碳排放 产业结构调整 宏观经济影响
最優碳稅 二氧化碳排放 產業結構調整 宏觀經濟影響
최우탄세 이양화탄배방 산업결구조정 굉관경제영향
Optimal Carbon Tax; Carbon Dioxide Emissions; Industrial Structure Adjustment; Maeroeeonomie Impacts
气候变化问题目前已成为全球关注的问题，探索低碳经济发展模式成为气候变化背景下人类必须作出的共同选择。中国是一个发展中国家，也是目前世界上最大的碳排放国，需研究在保障经济发展的前提下，如何进行经济转型和碳减排。碳税作为有效的市场减排手段，为各国政府所提倡。本文从微观主体出发，充分考虑中国经济增长阶段性特征，并通过蔓解在增长约束下基于福利最大化的动态最优碳税模型，得到最优碳税征收路径，并测算其宏观影响。结论发现开征碳税有利于减少碳排放，提高能源效率，并可以调整产业结构。在保障经济增长的前提下，中国最优碳税是一个动态的渐进过程。随着经济增长，经济社会承受力不断提高，最优碳税额逐渐上升。在具体的政策实施中，开始比较低的碳税可以使经济社会避免受到比较大的冲击。
氣候變化問題目前已成為全毬關註的問題，探索低碳經濟髮展模式成為氣候變化揹景下人類必鬚作齣的共同選擇。中國是一箇髮展中國傢，也是目前世界上最大的碳排放國，需研究在保障經濟髮展的前提下，如何進行經濟轉型和碳減排。碳稅作為有效的市場減排手段，為各國政府所提倡。本文從微觀主體齣髮，充分攷慮中國經濟增長階段性特徵，併通過蔓解在增長約束下基于福利最大化的動態最優碳稅模型，得到最優碳稅徵收路徑，併測算其宏觀影響。結論髮現開徵碳稅有利于減少碳排放，提高能源效率，併可以調整產業結構。在保障經濟增長的前提下，中國最優碳稅是一箇動態的漸進過程。隨著經濟增長，經濟社會承受力不斷提高，最優碳稅額逐漸上升。在具體的政策實施中，開始比較低的碳稅可以使經濟社會避免受到比較大的遲擊。
기후변화문제목전이성위전구관주적문제，탐색저탄경제발전모식성위기후변화배경하인류필수작출적공동선택。중국시일개발전중국가，야시목전세계상최대적탄배방국，수연구재보장경제발전적전제하，여하진행경제전형화탄감배。탄세작위유효적시장감배수단，위각국정부소제창。본문종미관주체출발，충분고필중국경제증장계단성특정，병통과만해재증장약속하기우복리최대화적동태최우탄세모형，득도최우탄세정수로경，병측산기굉관영향。결론발현개정탄세유리우감소탄배방，제고능원효솔，병가이조정산업결구。재보장경제증장적전제하，중국최우탄세시일개동태적점진과정。수착경제증장，경제사회승수력불단제고，최우탄세액축점상승。재구체적정책실시중，개시비교저적탄세가이사경제사회피면수도비교대적충격。
The issue of climate change has become a global concern. Under the background of climate change, exploring a low- carbon economic development model is the common choices of different governments. As the world top emission country and the largest developing country, China needs to find a way to balance the economic development and carbon emission reductions. As an effective method for achieving emission reduction, carbon tax has always been advocated by governments all over the world. This paper begins with micro perspective and carefully considers the characteristics of China＇ s economic development in the current stage. By applying the dynamic optimal tax model with welfare maximization under the constraint of economic growth, the paper finds the optimal path of carbon tax, and further estimates the macroeconomic impacts of carbon tax using a CGE model. We conclude that carbon taxes are in favor of carbon emission reduction, energy efficiency improvement and industrial structure adjustment. We find that the optimal carbon tax in China is a dynamic and progressive process along with economic growth. We propose that with stronger social affordability in the process of economic growth, the carbon tax can be increased gradually. In practice, we believe a relatively low carbon tax at the beginning would protect the economy and society from large shocks due to carbon tax.
