CAJ | 학술논문

随着冬季低温、南方雪灾等灾害的出现,哥本哈根气候大会再次将人们的关注聚焦在发展绿色经济上。以往人们较多关注环境生态指标在历史纵向维度的宏观变化趋势,而忽视了全球气候变化的局部微小波动其实也蕴含着巨灾风险的可能。本文以碳汇模型为桥梁,阐述了绿色经济、气候变化与巨灾风险之间的关系;建立了绿色经济投入-产出模型;评估了发展绿色经济对于防范巨灾风险的效益。结果表明：发展绿色经济,增加植被碳汇,可降低气候变化的剧烈程度,增强巨灾风险防范能力。
수착동계저온、남방설재등재해적출현,가본합근기후대회재차장인문적관주취초재발전록색경제상。이왕인문교다관주배경생태지표재역사종향유도적굉관변화추세,이홀시료전구기후변화적국부미소파동기실야온함착거재풍험적가능。본문이탄회모형위교량,천술료록색경제、기후변화여거재풍험지간적관계;건립료록색경제투입-산출모형;평고료발전록색경제대우방범거재풍험적효익。결과표명：발전록색경제,증가식피탄회,가강저기후변화적극렬정도,증강거재풍험방범능력。
After the global colder winter and the snow storm over Southern China,the Copenhagen Climate Conference focused attention on green economy again.People used to draw too much attention to environmental and ecological indicators in time dimension to realize the catastrophic risk under the tiny change of global climate.With the connection from the selected model of vegetation’s carbon sin,this paper illustrates the relationship between green economy,climate change,and catastrophe risk governance,establishes an input-output model for green economic,and assesses the benefits of green eco-nomy development for catastrophic risk governance.The result shows that to develop green economy can increase carbon sin,which will both smooth the climate change and enhance the ability of catastrophic risk governance.