CAJ | 학술논문

特许期是BOT项目特许经营协议中的关键参数之一。本文首先界定了污水处理BOT项目特许期的影响因素,以此为基础构建了一个带有收益约束条件的特许期决策模型,综合运用NPV与蒙特卡罗模拟方法对模型进行求解,根据大连市凌水河污水处理BOT项目的案例数据验证了该方法,并分别对有大修和无大修两种移交条件下的特许期区间进行了估计,为此类项目的特许期决策提供了一种可借鉴、可操作的方法。
특허기시BOT항목특허경영협의중적관건삼수지일。본문수선계정료오수처리BOT항목특허기적영향인소,이차위기출구건료일개대유수익약속조건적특허기결책모형,종합운용NPV여몽특잡라모의방법대모형진행구해,근거대련시릉수하오수처리BOT항목적안례수거험증료해방법,병분별대유대수화무대수량충이교조건하적특허기구간진행료고계,위차류항목적특허기결책제공료일충가차감、가조작적방법。
Concession period is one of key parameters in build-operate-transfer（BOT） contract.This paper first makes definition of the influencing factors of concession period in wastewater treatment projects.Based on it,a decision model is constructed under an income-constraint condition,and solutions are carried out by using NPV and Monte Carlo simulation.The method is certified by the data from the BOT project of Dalian Lingshui River wastewater treatment.The concession period interval is also estimated respectively under two transfer conditions of heavy repair and non-heavy repair.It provides an exercisable reference for concession period decision in terms of this type of projects.