商业研究
商業研究
상업연구
Commercial Research
2010年
11期
6~9
,共null页
外汇储备 经济增长 格兰杰因果检验
外彙儲備 經濟增長 格蘭傑因果檢驗
외회저비 경제증장 격란걸인과검험
foreign exchange reserves; economic growth; Granger Causality Test
利用格兰杰因果检验方法,对我国外汇储备与经济增长关系进行实证分析。从检验结果来看,短期和长期外汇储备的增长源于经济增长,但外汇储备只能在短期内促进经济增长。由于外汇储备对经济增长的促进作用只是短期行为,要真正促进经济增长还需要依靠其他政策综合发挥作用。
利用格蘭傑因果檢驗方法,對我國外彙儲備與經濟增長關繫進行實證分析。從檢驗結果來看,短期和長期外彙儲備的增長源于經濟增長,但外彙儲備隻能在短期內促進經濟增長。由于外彙儲備對經濟增長的促進作用隻是短期行為,要真正促進經濟增長還需要依靠其他政策綜閤髮揮作用。
이용격란걸인과검험방법,대아국외회저비여경제증장관계진행실증분석。종검험결과래간,단기화장기외회저비적증장원우경제증장,단외회저비지능재단기내촉진경제증장。유우외회저비대경제증장적촉진작용지시단기행위,요진정촉진경제증장환수요의고기타정책종합발휘작용。
The relationship between foreign exchange reserves and economic growth of China was analyzed both theoretically and empirically by using Granger Causality Test method. It was evident that the short term and long term accumulation of foreign exchange reserves came from economic growth,whereas the large amount of foreign exchange reserves just contributed to short term economic boom. So in order to stimulate long term economic prosperity,other comprehen-sive policies should be adopted.
