CAJ | 학술논문

根据KAYA公式,文章建立了三个低碳经济模型。以江西为例运用模型量化研究江西各市的碳排放量,通过对三个模型计算结果分析发现：工业化程度较高的南昌市、新余市、鹰潭市人均CO2排放量较大,CO2排放与工业发展程度有较大的相关性;在模型三计算中,森林植被对CO2减排有巨大作用;通过对全省各市的CO2排放对比分析,发现江西各设区市低碳经济发展极不平衡。同时还发现,由于森林等生态系统对CO2的吸收功能,部分城市在经济发展中存在CO2零排放的低碳发展的可能性。
근거KAYA공식,문장건립료삼개저탄경제모형。이강서위례운용모형양화연구강서각시적탄배방량,통과대삼개모형계산결과분석발현：공업화정도교고적남창시、신여시、응담시인균CO2배방량교대,CO2배방여공업발전정도유교대적상관성;재모형삼계산중,삼림식피대CO2감배유거대작용;통과대전성각시적CO2배방대비분석,발현강서각설구시저탄경제발전겁불평형。동시환발현,유우삼림등생태계통대CO2적흡수공능,부분성시재경제발전중존재CO2령배방적저탄발전적가능성。
Based on KAYA model,three models of low-carbon economy were established in this paper.For a case of Jiangxi Province,quantitative researches on carbon emissions in the economic development of Jiangxi cities were empirically analyzed,and the results show： the higher degree of industrialization in Nanchang City,Xinyu City and Yingtan City,the more CO2 emissions per capita,and CO2 emissions has a greater correlation with the industrial development.In model 3,the forest coverage has great effect on CO2 emissions;The comparative analysis of the CO2 emissions of all cities shows that,the districts and cities in Jiangxi low-carbon economic development is extremely uneven.And some cities are in the possibility of zero emissions of CO2 in low-carbon development,due to the CO2 absorption function of the forest and other ecosystems.